Heerjansdam vs Dongen Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.35 expected goals for Heerjansdam and 1.75 for Dongen, a combined total of 4.10. That distribution gives Heerjansdam the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Heerjansdam win

51.5% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.35 – 1.75

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Dongen away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Heerjansdam to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 20% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.35 goals for Heerjansdam and 1.75 for Dongen, a combined 4.10 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 78% and both teams to score at 75%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.

Match result (1X2)

Heerjansdam win52%

Draw20%

Dongen win29%

Double chance 1X

71%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

49%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals92%

Over 2.5 goals78%

Over 3.5 goals59%

Both teams to score75%

Correct score

2–18.0%
2–27.0%
1–16.8%
3–16.3%
1–26.0%

Recent form

Heerjansdam

Dongen

2026-10-03T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Poortugaal · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-27T12:30:00.000Z · A vs UNA · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Blauw Geel · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs GOES · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rijnvogels · 2-5 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Derde Divisie - Relegation Round table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	ROHDA Raalte	34	20	7	7	27	67
1	Kloetinge	34	22	7	5	25	73
2	DVS 33 Ermelo	34	17	11	6	20	62
2	FC Lisse	34	20	8	6	34	68
3	Sparta Nijkerk	34	19	4	11	41	61
3	Vvsb	34	21	5	8	33	68
4	ADO '20	34	17	9	8	10	60
4	Rijnvogels	34	19	7	8	24	64
5	SC Genemuiden	34	17	5	12	9	56
5	Gemert	34	17	10	7	25	61
6	Staphorst	34	17	3	14	10	54
6	Roosendaal	34	15	9	10	13	54
7	Harkemase Boys	34	14	10	10	12	52
7	TOGB	34	15	8	11	3	53
8	Dovo	34	15	7	12	10	52
8	Zwaluwen	34	15	6	13	13	51
9	Eemdijk	34	14	8	12	9	50
9	Blauw Geel	34	14	6	14	2	48
10	VV Scherpenzeel	34	14	7	13	10	49
10	Noordwijk	34	12	8	14	5	44
11	Hoogeveen	34	14	6	14	-10	48
11	UDI '19	34	11	6	17	-17	39
12	Sportlust '46	34	14	5	15	2	47
12	UNA	34	10	8	16	-8	38
13	Hercules	34	13	5	16	-4	44
13	GOES	34	10	7	17	-18	37
14	Excelsior '31	34	12	4	18	-8	40
14	Groene Ster	34	10	6	18	-19	36
15	Huizen	34	11	7	16	-12	40
15	SteDoCo	34	10	4	20	-34	34
16	TEC	34	12	4	18	-16	40
16	SVV Scheveningen	34	9	5	20	-16	32
17	URK	34	8	7	19	-36	31
17	Meerssen	34	8	7	19	-23	31
18	Hsc 21	34	1	5	28	-74	8
18	ASWH	34	6	7	21	-42	25

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Heerjansdam win, at 51.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 75% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.

A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.