Heeslinger SC vs Bersenbrück Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.67 expected goals for Heeslinger SC and 1.34 for Bersenbrück, a combined total of 4.01. That distribution gives Heeslinger SC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Heeslinger SC win

65.6% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.67 – 1.34

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Heeslinger SC home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bersenbrück away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Heeslinger SC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 66% / 17% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.67 goals for Heeslinger SC and 1.34 for Bersenbrück, a combined 4.01 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Heeslinger SC win66%

Draw17%

Bersenbrück win17%

Double chance 1X

83%

Double chance 12

83%

Double chance X2

35%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals91%

Over 2.5 goals76%

Over 3.5 goals57%

Both teams to score69%

Correct score

2–18.7%
3–17.7%
1–16.5%
2–06.5%
2–25.8%

Recent form

Heeslinger SC

2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Vorsfelde · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Nordhorn · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Spelle-Venhaus · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Germania Egestorf · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bersenbrück · 4-0 (W)

Bersenbrück

2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Nordhorn · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Germania Egestorf · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Hemmingen · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Lüneburger SK Hansa · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Meppen II · 5-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Oberliga - Niedersachsen table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Heeslinger SC	10	6	3	1	17	21
2	Eintracht Braunschw. II	10	6	2	2	15	20
3	Wilhelmshaven	9	6	2	1	13	20
4	Schwarz-Weiß Rehden	9	6	2	1	10	20
5	Borussia Hildesheim	9	6	1	2	7	19
6	Spelle-Venhaus	9	5	3	1	7	18
7	BW Lohne	9	4	2	3	4	14
8	Bersenbrück	9	4	1	4	2	13
9	Meppen II	10	4	1	5	-3	13
10	Nordhorn	10	3	2	5	-13	11
11	Verden 04	10	2	4	4	-2	10
12	Germania Egestorf	9	2	2	5	-9	8
13	Hemmingen	9	2	1	6	-15	7
14	Lüneburger SK Hansa	9	0	6	3	-3	6
15	Vorsfelde	10	1	2	7	-17	5
16	Drochtersen/Assel II	9	1	0	8	-13	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Heeslinger SC win, at 65.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.