· Analysis updated 10:14 UTC
Heeslinger SC vs Vorsfelde Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.18 expected goals for Heeslinger SC and 1.00 for Vorsfelde, a combined total of 3.18. That distribution gives Heeslinger SC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Heeslinger SC win
64.1% probability
Expected goals
2.18 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Heeslinger SC home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Vorsfelde away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Heeslinger SC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 64% / 20% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.18 goals for Heeslinger SC and 1.00 for Vorsfelde, a combined 3.18 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
36%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–09.9%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–09.1%
- 1–19.1%
- 3–07.2%
Recent form
Heeslinger SC
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Vorsfelde · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Nordhorn · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Spelle-Venhaus · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Germania Egestorf · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bersenbrück · 4-0 (W)
Vorsfelde
- 2026-10-18T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Bersenbrück · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Meppen II · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Braunschw. II · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Heeslinger SC · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Lüneburger SK Hansa · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2025-04-06T13:00:00.000Z · Heeslinger SC 0-1 Vorsfelde (Oberliga - Niedersachsen)
- 2024-10-06T13:00:00.000Z · Heeslinger SC 5-1 Vorsfelde (Oberliga - Niedersachsen)
- 2024-05-05T13:00:00.000Z · Heeslinger SC 3-1 Vorsfelde (Oberliga - Niedersachsen)
- 2023-11-04T13:00:00.000Z · Heeslinger SC 0-2 Vorsfelde (Oberliga - Niedersachsen)
Oberliga - Niedersachsen table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eintracht Braunschw. II | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 26 |
| 2 | Wilhelmshaven | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 24 |
| 3 | Heeslinger SC | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 17 | 22 |
| 4 | Spelle-Venhaus | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 22 |
| 5 | Schwarz-Weiß Rehden | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 21 |
| 6 | Borussia Hildesheim | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 20 |
| 7 | BW Lohne | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 17 |
| 8 | Bersenbrück | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 16 |
| 9 | Meppen II | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 16 |
| 10 | Verden 04 | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 13 |
| 11 | Nordhorn | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -13 | 13 |
| 12 | Germania Egestorf | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -9 | 9 |
| 13 | Hemmingen | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -20 | 7 |
| 14 | Lüneburger SK Hansa | 10 | 0 | 6 | 4 | -5 | 6 |
| 15 | Vorsfelde | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | -19 | 5 |
| 16 | Drochtersen/Assel II | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | -14 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Heeslinger SC win, at 64.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.