· Analysis updated 06:13 UTC
Hegelmann II vs Minija Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.75 expected goals for Hegelmann II and 1.85 for Minija, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Minija the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Minija win
63.5% probability
Expected goals
0.75 – 1.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Minija away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Minija to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 15% / 22% / 64% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.75 goals for Hegelmann II and 1.85 for Minija, a combined 2.60 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 48% and both teams to score at 45%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
37%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
85%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.7%
- 0–212.7%
- 1–110.3%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–37.8%
Recent form
Hegelmann II
Minija
- 2026-10-24T11:30:00.000Z · A vs BFA · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Babrungas · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-11T11:15:00.000Z · H vs Kauno Žalgiris · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-02T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kauno Žalgiris II · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Neptūną Klaipėda · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1 Lyga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Babrungas | 28 | 22 | 4 | 2 | 39 | 70 |
| 2 | Minija | 27 | 22 | 1 | 4 | 53 | 67 |
| 3 | Be1 NFA | 27 | 18 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 57 |
| 4 | Žalgiris II | 28 | 15 | 4 | 9 | 8 | 49 |
| 5 | BFA | 28 | 14 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 46 |
| 6 | Tauras | 27 | 13 | 5 | 9 | 11 | 44 |
| 7 | Dainava | 28 | 12 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 44 |
| 8 | Neptūną Klaipėda | 28 | 14 | 2 | 12 | -2 | 44 |
| 9 | Atmosfera | 27 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 37 |
| 10 | Jonava | 28 | 8 | 6 | 14 | -7 | 30 |
| 11 | Garliava | 28 | 8 | 5 | 15 | -3 | 29 |
| 12 | Kauno Žalgiris II | 28 | 8 | 2 | 18 | -21 | 26 |
| 13 | Hegelmann II | 28 | 8 | 2 | 18 | -29 | 26 |
| 14 | Transinvest 2 | 27 | 7 | 4 | 16 | -27 | 25 |
| 15 | FA Šiauliai II | 27 | 4 | 6 | 17 | -30 | 18 |
| 16 | Ekranas | 28 | 5 | 3 | 20 | -33 | 18 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Minija win, at 63.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.