Raudondvario stadionas · Referee D. Simenas · Analysis updated 15:56 UTC
Hegelmann Litauen vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.90 expected goals for Hegelmann Litauen and 1.43 for FK Zalgiris Vilnius, a combined total of 2.33. That distribution gives FK Zalgiris Vilnius the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FK Zalgiris Vilnius win
49.3% probability
Expected goals
0.90 – 1.43
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hegelmann Litauen home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius away threat
Scored in 0 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.9%
- 1–112.5%
- 0–29.9%
- 0–09.8%
- 1–28.9%
Recent form
Hegelmann Litauen
- 2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-20T11:15:00.000Z · H vs Suduva Marijampole · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Šiauliai · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-07T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Panevėžys · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-31T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Džiugas Telšiai · 2-2 (D)
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
- 2026-10-10T11:15:00.000Z · H vs Suduva Marijampole · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Panevėžys · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · A vs TransINVEST Vilnius · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Kauno Žalgiris · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-13T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Suduva Marijampole · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-27T15:45:00.000Z · Hegelmann Litauen 2-3 FK Zalgiris Vilnius (A Lyga)
- 2026-05-24T11:15:00.000Z · Hegelmann Litauen 3-1 FK Zalgiris Vilnius (A Lyga)
- 2026-03-22T12:15:00.000Z · Hegelmann Litauen 0-0 FK Zalgiris Vilnius (A Lyga)
- 2026-02-08T14:15:00.000Z · Hegelmann Litauen 0-1 FK Zalgiris Vilnius (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2025-11-02T16:25:00.000Z · Hegelmann Litauen 1-3 FK Zalgiris Vilnius (A Lyga)
- 2025-08-24T16:00:00.000Z · Hegelmann Litauen 2-2 FK Zalgiris Vilnius (A Lyga)
- 2025-06-24T15:30:00.000Z · Hegelmann Litauen 1-0 FK Zalgiris Vilnius (A Lyga)
- 2025-04-20T15:25:00.000Z · Hegelmann Litauen 2-1 FK Zalgiris Vilnius (A Lyga)
- 2025-01-30T11:30:00.000Z · Hegelmann Litauen 3-2 FK Zalgiris Vilnius (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-09-14T12:00:00.000Z · Hegelmann Litauen 1-1 FK Zalgiris Vilnius (A Lyga)
A Lyga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kauno Žalgiris | 28 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 36 | 51 |
| 2 | Suduva Marijampole | 29 | 13 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 50 |
| 3 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 29 | 14 | 5 | 10 | 11 | 47 |
| 4 | TransINVEST Vilnius | 29 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 46 |
| 5 | Banga | 29 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 3 | 41 |
| 6 | Džiugas Telšiai | 29 | 10 | 9 | 10 | -4 | 39 |
| 7 | Panevėžys | 29 | 10 | 5 | 14 | -13 | 35 |
| 8 | Hegelmann Litauen | 29 | 4 | 14 | 11 | -17 | 26 |
| 9 | Šiauliai | 29 | 3 | 8 | 18 | -34 | 17 |
| 10 | FK Trakai | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FK Zalgiris Vilnius win, at 49.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 41%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.