Raudondvario stadionas · Analysis updated 15:36 UTC
Hegelmann Litauen vs Kauno Žalgiris Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.98 expected goals for Hegelmann Litauen and 1.88 for Kauno Žalgiris, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Kauno Žalgiris the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Kauno Žalgiris win
58.5% probability
Expected goals
0.98 – 1.88
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hegelmann Litauen home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kauno Žalgiris away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
42%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
81%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–110.8%
- 1–110.6%
- 0–210.2%
- 1–29.9%
- 0–36.4%
Recent form
Hegelmann Litauen
- 2026-09-20T11:15:00.000Z · H vs Suduva Marijampole · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Šiauliai · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-07T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Panevėžys · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-31T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Džiugas Telšiai · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-23T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Banga · 1-1 (D)
Kauno Žalgiris
- 2026-10-11T11:15:00.000Z · A vs Minija · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Šiauliai · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T15:45:00.000Z · A vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Panevėžys · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Suduva Marijampole · 5-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-08T16:00:00.000Z · Hegelmann Litauen 0-2 Kauno Žalgiris (A Lyga)
- 2026-06-14T11:15:00.000Z · Hegelmann Litauen 1-1 Kauno Žalgiris (A Lyga)
- 2026-04-11T11:15:00.000Z · Hegelmann Litauen 0-5 Kauno Žalgiris (A Lyga)
- 2025-10-01T16:00:00.000Z · Hegelmann Litauen 1-1 Kauno Žalgiris (A Lyga)
- 2025-08-27T16:00:00.000Z · Hegelmann Litauen 1-2 Kauno Žalgiris (A Lyga)
- 2025-06-19T17:00:00.000Z · Hegelmann Litauen 1-2 Kauno Žalgiris (A Lyga)
- 2025-04-16T16:00:00.000Z · Hegelmann Litauen 1-3 Kauno Žalgiris (A Lyga)
- 2024-08-24T15:00:00.000Z · Hegelmann Litauen 1-1 Kauno Žalgiris (A Lyga)
- 2024-06-23T11:00:00.000Z · Hegelmann Litauen 1-4 Kauno Žalgiris (A Lyga)
- 2024-04-28T10:00:00.000Z · Hegelmann Litauen 0-1 Kauno Žalgiris (A Lyga)
A Lyga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kauno Žalgiris | 28 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 36 | 51 |
| 2 | Suduva Marijampole | 29 | 13 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 50 |
| 3 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 29 | 14 | 5 | 10 | 11 | 47 |
| 4 | TransINVEST Vilnius | 28 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 45 |
| 5 | Banga | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 4 | 41 |
| 6 | Džiugas Telšiai | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | -4 | 38 |
| 7 | Panevėžys | 28 | 9 | 5 | 14 | -14 | 32 |
| 8 | Hegelmann Litauen | 29 | 4 | 14 | 11 | -17 | 26 |
| 9 | Šiauliai | 29 | 3 | 8 | 18 | -34 | 17 |
| 10 | FK Trakai | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kauno Žalgiris win, at 58.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.