Raudondvario stadionas · Referee M. Lukjancukas · Analysis updated 08:00 UTC
Hegelmann Litauen vs Suduva Marijampole Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Hegelmann Litauen and 1.48 for Suduva Marijampole, a combined total of 2.63. That distribution gives Suduva Marijampole the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
70.4% probability
Expected goals
1.15 – 1.48
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hegelmann Litauen home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Suduva Marijampole away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 8 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.3%
- 0–110.7%
- 1–29.1%
- 1–08.3%
- 0–27.9%
Recent form
Hegelmann Litauen
- 2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-20T11:15:00.000Z · H vs Suduva Marijampole · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Šiauliai · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-07T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Panevėžys · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-31T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Džiugas Telšiai · 2-2 (D)
Suduva Marijampole
- 2026-10-10T11:15:00.000Z · A vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-29T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Jagiellonia · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-20T11:15:00.000Z · A vs Hegelmann Litauen · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T15:45:00.000Z · H vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-09T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Kauno Žalgiris · 1-5 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-20T11:15:00.000Z · Hegelmann Litauen 1-1 Suduva Marijampole (A Lyga)
- 2026-07-20T15:45:00.000Z · Hegelmann Litauen 1-5 Suduva Marijampole (A Lyga)
- 2026-05-16T14:00:00.000Z · Hegelmann Litauen 2-2 Suduva Marijampole (A Lyga)
- 2026-03-14T12:15:00.000Z · Hegelmann Litauen 0-0 Suduva Marijampole (A Lyga)
- 2025-11-08T13:00:00.000Z · Hegelmann Litauen 2-1 Suduva Marijampole (A Lyga)
- 2025-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · Hegelmann Litauen 1-2 Suduva Marijampole (A Lyga)
- 2025-06-30T16:00:00.000Z · Hegelmann Litauen 0-2 Suduva Marijampole (A Lyga)
- 2025-04-27T15:25:00.000Z · Hegelmann Litauen 0-4 Suduva Marijampole (A Lyga)
- 2025-02-12T11:00:00.000Z · Hegelmann Litauen 2-0 Suduva Marijampole (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-11-02T13:00:00.000Z · Hegelmann Litauen 2-1 Suduva Marijampole (A Lyga)
A Lyga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kauno Žalgiris | 28 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 36 | 51 |
| 2 | Suduva Marijampole | 29 | 13 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 50 |
| 3 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 29 | 14 | 5 | 10 | 11 | 47 |
| 4 | TransINVEST Vilnius | 29 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 46 |
| 5 | Banga | 29 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 3 | 41 |
| 6 | Džiugas Telšiai | 29 | 10 | 9 | 10 | -4 | 39 |
| 7 | Panevėžys | 29 | 10 | 5 | 14 | -13 | 35 |
| 8 | Hegelmann Litauen | 29 | 4 | 14 | 11 | -17 | 26 |
| 9 | Šiauliai | 29 | 3 | 8 | 18 | -34 | 17 |
| 10 | FK Trakai | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 70.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.