· Analysis updated 14:18 UTC
Heidenheim U19 vs Bayer Leverkusen U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.98 expected goals for Heidenheim U19 and 2.03 for Bayer Leverkusen U19, a combined total of 4.00. That distribution gives Bayer Leverkusen U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
61.3% probability
Expected goals
1.98 – 2.03
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Heidenheim U19 home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bayer Leverkusen U19 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bayer Leverkusen U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 39% / 21% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.98 goals for Heidenheim U19 and 2.03 for Bayer Leverkusen U19, a combined 4.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–27.4%
- 1–17.3%
- 2–27.3%
- 2–17.2%
- 1–35.0%
Recent form
Heidenheim U19
- 2026-10-25T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Ulm U19 · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Karlsruher SC U19 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Augsburg U19 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Borussia M'bach U19 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Freiburg U19 · 3-3 (D)
Bayer Leverkusen U19
- 2026-10-24T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Elversberg U19 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Bochum U19 · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-10-10T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Alemannia Aachen U19 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Kaiserslautern U19 · 4-6 (L)
- 2026-09-16T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Viktoria Köln U19 · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 61.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 75% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.