Heidenheim U19 vs Freiburg U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.93 expected goals for Heidenheim U19 and 1.35 for Freiburg U19, a combined total of 3.28. That distribution gives Heidenheim U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Heidenheim U19 win

50.9% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.93 – 1.35

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Heidenheim U19 home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Freiburg U19 away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 9 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Heidenheim U19 win51%

Draw22%

Freiburg U19 win27%

Double chance 1X

73%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

49%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals64%

Over 3.5 goals41%

Both teams to score63%

Correct score

1–19.8%
2–19.5%
1–07.3%
2–07.0%
1–26.6%

Recent form

Heidenheim U19

2026-10-25T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Ulm U19 · 7-0 (W)
2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Karlsruher SC U19 · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Augsburg U19 · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-20T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Borussia M'bach U19 · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-12T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Freiburg U19 · 3-3 (D)

Freiburg U19

2026-10-24T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Sandhausen U19 · 4-1 (W)
2026-10-17T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Augsburg U19 · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-11T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Hoffenheim U19 · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-12T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Heidenheim U19 · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Stuttgarter K'rs U19 · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2024-12-07T12:00:00.000Z · Heidenheim U19 2-1 Freiburg U19 (U19 Bundesliga)
2024-09-21T09:00:00.000Z · Heidenheim U19 4-1 Freiburg U19 (U19 Bundesliga)
2022-12-03T10:00:00.000Z · Heidenheim U19 1-3 Freiburg U19 (U19 Bundesliga)
2022-04-02T09:00:00.000Z · Heidenheim U19 1-4 Freiburg U19 (U19 Bundesliga)
2020-10-17T08:30:00.000Z · Heidenheim U19 0-0 Freiburg U19 (U19 Bundesliga)
2020-03-08T09:30:00.000Z · Heidenheim U19 1-2 Freiburg U19 (U19 Bundesliga)
2019-09-28T09:00:00.000Z · Heidenheim U19 1-2 Freiburg U19 (U19 Bundesliga)
2018-12-09T09:30:00.000Z · Heidenheim U19 1-1 Freiburg U19 (U19 Bundesliga)
2018-08-11T09:00:00.000Z · Heidenheim U19 1-0 Freiburg U19 (U19 Bundesliga)

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Heidenheim U19 win, at 50.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.

A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.