Heidenheim U19 vs Hoffenheim U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.65 expected goals for Heidenheim U19 and 2.88 for Hoffenheim U19, a combined total of 5.53. That distribution gives Hoffenheim U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 91% for over 2.5 goals and 87% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Hoffenheim U19 win

45.0% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.65 – 2.88

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Heidenheim U19 home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 9 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hoffenheim U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 38% / 17% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.65 goals for Heidenheim U19 and 2.88 for Hoffenheim U19, a combined 5.53 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Heidenheim U19 win38%

Draw17%

Hoffenheim U19 win45%

Double chance 1X

55%

Double chance 12

83%

Double chance X2

62%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals97%

Over 2.5 goals91%

Over 3.5 goals80%

Both teams to score87%

Correct score

2–25.8%
2–35.5%
3–25.1%
3–34.9%
1–24.4%

Recent form

Heidenheim U19

2026-08-30T12:00:00.000Z · H vs 1860 München U19 · 6-4 (W)
2026-08-23T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Sandhausen U19 · 5-0 (W)
2026-08-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Stuttgarter K'rs U19 · 6-1 (W)
2026-08-15T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Ulm U19 · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-09T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Karlsruher SC U19 · 1-0 (W)

Hoffenheim U19

Head-to-head

2025-10-17T16:00:00.000Z · Heidenheim U19 1-2 Hoffenheim U19 (U19 Bundesliga)
2025-08-09T12:00:00.000Z · Heidenheim U19 2-0 Hoffenheim U19 (U19 Bundesliga)
2024-10-27T12:00:00.000Z · Heidenheim U19 2-3 Hoffenheim U19 (U19 Bundesliga)
2024-08-14T12:00:00.000Z · Heidenheim U19 3-2 Hoffenheim U19 (U19 Bundesliga)
2023-12-10T13:00:00.000Z · Heidenheim U19 0-1 Hoffenheim U19 (U19 Bundesliga)
2023-08-12T12:00:00.000Z · Heidenheim U19 2-5 Hoffenheim U19 (U19 Bundesliga)
2023-03-11T11:00:00.000Z · Heidenheim U19 1-0 Hoffenheim U19 (U19 Bundesliga)
2021-09-18T12:00:00.000Z · Heidenheim U19 3-0 Hoffenheim U19 (U19 Bundesliga)
2020-02-01T13:00:00.000Z · Heidenheim U19 3-2 Hoffenheim U19 (U19 Bundesliga)

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Hoffenheim U19 win, at 45.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 87% and over 2.5 goals at 91%.

A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.