Gesundbrunnenstadion · Analysis updated 13:26 UTC
Heiligenstadt vs Budissa Bautzen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for Heiligenstadt and 1.60 for Budissa Bautzen, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Budissa Bautzen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.5% probability
Expected goals
1.40 – 1.60
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Heiligenstadt home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Budissa Bautzen away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Budissa Bautzen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 34% / 24% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.40 goals for Heiligenstadt and 1.60 for Budissa Bautzen, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.2%
- 1–28.9%
- 0–18.0%
- 2–17.8%
- 1–07.0%
Recent form
Heiligenstadt
- 2026-05-30T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Einheit Wernigerode · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-05-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs VfL Halle · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-05-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Empor Glauchau · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Budissa Bautzen · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-04-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Lok Stendal · 0-2 (L)
Budissa Bautzen
- 2026-10-23T17:00:00.000Z · H vs ZFC Meuselwitz · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Union Sandersdorf · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Weissenfels · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Krieschow · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Empor Glauchau · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Oberliga - Nordost-Süd table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ZFC Meuselwitz | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 23 |
| 2 | Auerbach | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 20 |
| 3 | Germania Halberstadt | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 19 |
| 4 | VfL Halle | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 18 |
| 5 | Eilenburg | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 16 |
| 6 | Dresden II | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 14 |
| 7 | Plauen | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 13 |
| 8 | SC Freital | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13 |
| 9 | Weissenfels | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 12 |
| 10 | Union Sandersdorf | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 10 |
| 11 | Empor Glauchau | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| 12 | Budissa Bautzen | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 9 |
| 13 | Einheit Wernigerode | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | -9 | 8 |
| 14 | Krieschow | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -12 | 8 |
| 15 | Einheit Rudolstadt | 9 | 0 | 3 | 6 | -18 | 3 |
| 16 | FC Frankfurt | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | -22 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.