Heiligenstadt vs SC Freital Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.72 expected goals for Heiligenstadt and 1.72 for SC Freital, a combined total of 3.44. That distribution gives Heiligenstadt the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

61.2% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.72 – 1.72

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Heiligenstadt home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
SC Freital away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Heiligenstadt to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 23% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.72 goals for Heiligenstadt and 1.72 for SC Freital, a combined 3.44 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Heiligenstadt win39%

Draw23%

SC Freital win39%

Double chance 1X

61%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

61%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals86%

Over 2.5 goals67%

Over 3.5 goals45%

Both teams to score67%

Correct score

1–19.5%
1–28.2%
2–18.2%
2–27.0%
0–15.5%

Recent form

Heiligenstadt

2026-05-30T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Einheit Wernigerode · 4-3 (W)
2026-05-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs VfL Halle · 2-2 (D)
2026-05-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Empor Glauchau · 0-1 (L)
2026-05-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Budissa Bautzen · 2-3 (L)
2026-04-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Lok Stendal · 0-2 (L)

SC Freital

2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Weissenfels · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Krieschow · 4-2 (W)
2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Empor Glauchau · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Einheit Wernigerode · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Auerbach · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	ZFC Meuselwitz	9	7	2	0	13	23
2	Auerbach	9	6	2	1	13	20
3	Germania Halberstadt	9	6	1	2	15	19
4	VfL Halle	9	6	0	3	4	18
5	Eilenburg	9	5	1	3	12	16
6	Dresden II	9	3	5	1	7	14
7	Plauen	9	3	4	2	4	13
8	SC Freital	9	3	4	2	2	13
9	Weissenfels	9	4	0	5	-2	12
10	Union Sandersdorf	9	3	1	5	2	10
11	Empor Glauchau	9	2	3	4	-2	9
12	Budissa Bautzen	9	2	3	4	-7	9
13	Einheit Wernigerode	9	1	5	3	-9	8
14	Krieschow	9	2	2	5	-12	8
15	Einheit Rudolstadt	9	0	3	6	-18	3
16	FC Frankfurt	9	1	0	8	-22	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 61.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.

A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.