Heimstetten vs Erlbach Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.95 expected goals for Heimstetten and 1.40 for Erlbach, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Erlbach the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Erlbach win

47.4% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.95 – 1.40

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Heimstetten home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Erlbach away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 6 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Heimstetten win26%

Draw27%

Erlbach win47%

Double chance 1X

53%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

75%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals68%

Over 2.5 goals42%

Over 3.5 goals21%

Both teams to score46%

Correct score

0–113.4%
1–112.7%
0–09.5%
0–29.3%
1–09.1%

Recent form

Heimstetten

2026-08-28T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Landshut · 3-3 (D)
2026-08-25T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Pfaffenhofen · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-21T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Hankofen-Hailing · 0-4 (L)
2026-08-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Schalding-Heining · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-08T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Schwabmünchen · 3-1 (W)

Erlbach

2026-10-23T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Schalding-Heining · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Schwabmünchen · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs TuS Geretsried · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Heimstetten · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Pipinsried · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-04-18T12:00:00.000Z · Heimstetten 3-2 Erlbach (Oberliga - Bayern Süd)
2025-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · Heimstetten 2-0 Erlbach (Oberliga - Bayern Süd)
2024-11-09T14:30:00.000Z · Heimstetten 0-3 Erlbach (Oberliga - Bayern Süd)
2024-07-30T17:00:00.000Z · Heimstetten 1-1 Erlbach (Oberliga - Bayern Süd)
2024-03-02T13:00:00.000Z · Heimstetten 1-2 Erlbach (Oberliga - Bayern Süd)
2023-08-11T17:30:00.000Z · Heimstetten 1-1 Erlbach (Oberliga - Bayern Süd)

Oberliga - Bayern Süd table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Pipinsried	16	10	3	3	21	33
2	Erlbach	16	9	5	2	13	32
3	1880 Wasserburg	16	10	1	5	11	31
4	Pfaffenhofen	16	8	5	3	4	29
5	Landshut	16	8	4	4	11	28
6	Hankofen-Hailing	16	8	4	4	8	28
7	Sportfreunde Schwaig	16	6	9	1	16	27
8	Ismaning	16	7	2	7	8	23
9	1860 München II	16	5	6	5	3	21
10	Schwabmünchen	16	5	4	7	-1	19
11	Heimstetten	16	4	7	5	-2	19
12	Gundelfingen	16	4	6	6	-2	18
13	Kottern	16	4	6	6	-6	18
14	Deisenhofen	16	4	4	8	-16	16
15	1860 Rosenheim	16	3	6	7	-9	15
16	Kirchanschöring	16	4	3	9	-13	15
17	Schalding-Heining	16	2	4	10	-27	10
18	TuS Geretsried	16	2	3	11	-19	9

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Erlbach win, at 47.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.

A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.