Heimstetten vs TuS Geretsried Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 3.25 expected goals for Heimstetten and 1.50 for TuS Geretsried, a combined total of 4.75. That distribution gives Heimstetten the largest share of the 1X2 market at 71%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 85% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 71% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Heimstetten win

71.4% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

3.25 – 1.50

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Heimstetten home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
TuS Geretsried away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Heimstetten to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 71%, against 71% / 14% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.25 goals for Heimstetten and 1.50 for TuS Geretsried, a combined 4.75 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Heimstetten win71%

Draw14%

TuS Geretsried win14%

Double chance 1X

86%

Double chance 12

86%

Double chance X2

29%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals94%

Over 2.5 goals85%

Over 3.5 goals69%

Both teams to score74%

Correct score

3–17.4%
2–16.9%
4–16.0%
3–25.6%
2–25.1%

Recent form

Heimstetten

2026-08-28T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Landshut · 3-3 (D)
2026-08-25T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Pfaffenhofen · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-21T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Hankofen-Hailing · 0-4 (L)
2026-08-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Schalding-Heining · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-08T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Schwabmünchen · 3-1 (W)

TuS Geretsried

2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Gundelfingen · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-19T12:30:00.000Z · H vs 1880 Wasserburg · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Deisenhofen · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-05T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Landshut · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-28T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Hankofen-Hailing · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Oberliga - Bayern Süd table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Pipinsried	16	10	3	3	21	33
2	Erlbach	16	9	5	2	13	32
3	1880 Wasserburg	16	10	1	5	11	31
4	Pfaffenhofen	16	8	5	3	4	29
5	Landshut	16	8	4	4	11	28
6	Hankofen-Hailing	16	8	4	4	8	28
7	Sportfreunde Schwaig	16	6	9	1	16	27
8	Ismaning	16	7	2	7	8	23
9	1860 München II	16	5	6	5	3	21
10	Schwabmünchen	16	5	4	7	-1	19
11	Heimstetten	16	4	7	5	-2	19
12	Gundelfingen	16	4	6	6	-2	18
13	Kottern	16	4	6	6	-6	18
14	Deisenhofen	16	4	4	8	-16	16
15	1860 Rosenheim	16	3	6	7	-9	15
16	Kirchanschöring	16	4	3	9	-13	15
17	Schalding-Heining	16	2	4	10	-27	10
18	TuS Geretsried	16	2	3	11	-19	9

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Heimstetten win, at 71.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 85%.

A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.