· Analysis updated 06:18 UTC
Hekari United vs Bula Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Hekari United and 1.45 for Bula, a combined total of 2.98. That distribution gives Hekari United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.0% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bula away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hekari United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 24% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for Hekari United and 1.45 for Bula, a combined 2.98 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 57% and both teams to score at 60%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.3%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–28.2%
- 1–07.8%
- 0–17.4%
Recent form
Hekari United
- 2026-05-13T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Solomon Kings · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-10T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Tahiti United · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-05-07T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Vanuatu United · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-04-18T03:00:00.000Z · A vs South Melbourne · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-15T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Auckland FC 2 · 0-2 (L)
Bula
- 2026-05-17T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Vanuatu United · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-12T03:00:00.000Z · A vs South Melbourne · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-05-09T02:30:00.000Z · A vs Auckland FC 2 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-06T03:00:00.000Z · H vs South Island United · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-18T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Auckland FC 2 · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
OFC Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | South Melbourne | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Hekari United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Auckland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Vanuatu United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Bula | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | South Island United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Tahiti United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Solomon Kings | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.