· Analysis updated 13:30 UTC
Hekari United vs Tahiti United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Hekari United and 1.50 for Tahiti United, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives Tahiti United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Tahiti United win
45.3% probability
Expected goals
1.15 – 1.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tahiti United away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tahiti United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 29% / 26% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.15 goals for Hekari United and 1.50 for Tahiti United, a combined 2.65 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 49% and both teams to score at 53%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.2%
- 0–110.6%
- 1–29.1%
- 1–08.1%
- 0–27.9%
Recent form
Hekari United
- 2026-05-13T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Solomon Kings · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-10T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Tahiti United · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-05-07T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Vanuatu United · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-04-18T03:00:00.000Z · A vs South Melbourne · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-15T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Auckland FC 2 · 0-2 (L)
Tahiti United
- 2026-05-13T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Vanuatu United · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-05-10T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Hekari United · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-05-07T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Solomon Kings · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-21T07:00:00.000Z · A vs South Melbourne · 1-8 (L)
- 2026-04-17T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Vanuatu United · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-10T05:00:00.000Z · Hekari United 2-2 Tahiti United (OFC Pro League)
- 2026-03-18T08:00:00.000Z · Hekari United 2-2 Tahiti United (OFC Pro League)
- 2026-03-03T04:00:00.000Z · Hekari United 1-2 Tahiti United (OFC Pro League)
OFC Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | South Melbourne | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Hekari United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Auckland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Vanuatu United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Bula | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | South Island United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Tahiti United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Solomon Kings | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Tahiti United win, at 45.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.