· Analysis updated 19:46 UTC
Helges vs Gute Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Helges and 2.17 for Gute, a combined total of 3.55. That distribution gives Gute the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Gute win
55.5% probability
Expected goals
1.38 – 2.17
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Helges home form
1 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Gute away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gute to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 24% / 21% / 56% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.38 goals for Helges and 2.17 for Gute, a combined 3.55 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
45%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.3%
- 1–18.6%
- 0–26.8%
- 1–36.8%
- 2–26.4%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.1%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.83 | 50.0% | 52.6% | 1.90 | +2.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.44 | 64.5% | 66.3% | 1.51 | +1.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 2.10 | 43.3% | 44.5% | 2.25 | +1.2 |
| Match result | Home | 3.80 | 23.7% | 24.0% | 4.17 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Away | 1.62 | 55.5% | 55.5% | 1.80 | -0.0 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.36 | 68.8% | 68.8% | 1.45 | -0.0 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 3.00 | 31.2% | 31.2% | 3.21 | 0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.14 | 79.7% | 79.5% | 1.26 | -0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.33 | 20.8% | 20.5% | 4.88 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.18 | 77.0% | 76.0% | 1.32 | -1.0 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.62 | 35.5% | 33.7% | 2.97 | -1.8 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 1.83 | 50.0% | 47.4% | 2.11 | -2.6 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Helges
- 2026-10-17T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Enskede · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Franke · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-10-04T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Angby · 0-9 (L)
- 2026-09-26T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Gute · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Viggbyholms IK · 2-4 (L)
Gute
- 2026-09-26T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Helges · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Enskede · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Viggbyholms IK · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Franke · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Lidingö · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Division 2 - Norra Svealand table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Skiljebo | 26 | 18 | 5 | 3 | 34 | 59 |
| 2 | Enskede | 26 | 17 | 4 | 5 | 19 | 55 |
| 3 | Sunnersta | 26 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 43 | 54 |
| 4 | Angby | 26 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 25 | 51 |
| 5 | Falu BS | 26 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 44 |
| 6 | Täby | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 16 | 42 |
| 7 | Franke | 26 | 11 | 4 | 11 | 4 | 37 |
| 8 | Gute | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 0 | 33 |
| 9 | Bollstanäs | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 31 |
| 10 | Kungsängen | 26 | 5 | 11 | 10 | -9 | 26 |
| 11 | Viggbyholms IK | 26 | 7 | 4 | 15 | -23 | 25 |
| 12 | Lidingö | 26 | 6 | 5 | 15 | -27 | 23 |
| 13 | Korsnäs | 26 | 4 | 5 | 17 | -36 | 17 |
| 14 | Helges | 26 | 2 | 4 | 20 | -50 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Gute win, at 55.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.