· Analysis updated 17:50 UTC
Hellas Verona U20 vs Cesena U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Hellas Verona U20 and 1.62 for Cesena U20, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Cesena U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.3% probability
Expected goals
1.38 – 1.62
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hellas Verona U20 home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cesena U20 away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cesena U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 33% / 24% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.38 goals for Hellas Verona U20 and 1.62 for Cesena U20, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.1%
- 1–29.0%
- 0–18.1%
- 2–17.7%
- 1–06.9%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.9%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Home | 2.80 | 31.9% | 32.7% | 3.06 | +0.8 |
| Match result | Away | 2.10 | 42.6% | 43.2% | 2.31 | +0.6 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.38 | 66.8% | 67.3% | 1.49 | +0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 75.6% | 75.9% | 1.32 | +0.3 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.55 | 57.5% | 57.7% | 1.73 | +0.2 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.10 | 42.5% | 42.3% | 2.36 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.60 | 57.6% | 56.8% | 1.76 | -0.8 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.50 | 25.5% | 24.1% | 4.15 | -1.4 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Hellas Verona U20
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Torino U20 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Milan U20 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Monza U20 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-31T14:45:00.000Z · A vs Fiorentina U20 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-24T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Cesena U20 · 0-1 (L)
Cesena U20
- 2026-09-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Albinoleffe U20 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Lazio U20 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Empoli U20 · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-08-30T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Milan U20 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-24T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Hellas Verona U20 · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Campionato Primavera - 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Internazionale U20 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 15 |
| 2 | Parma U20 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 15 |
| 3 | Empoli U20 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 15 |
| 4 | Roma U20 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 5 | Bologna U20 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 6 | Genoa U20 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | Lazio U20 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 8 | Lecce U20 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 9 | Milan U20 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | Como U20 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 11 | Cesena U20 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 12 | Torino U20 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 13 | Sassuolo U20 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 14 | Cagliari U20 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 8 |
| 15 | Fiorentina U20 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 16 | Hellas Verona U20 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 7 |
| 17 | Juventus U20 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 | Atalanta U20 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 6 |
| 19 | Monza U20 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 5 |
| 20 | Albinoleffe U20 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -11 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.