Helmond Sport vs FC Eindhoven Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.05 expected goals for Helmond Sport and 1.43 for FC Eindhoven, a combined total of 3.47. That distribution gives Helmond Sport the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Helmond Sport win

52.0% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.05 – 1.43

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Helmond Sport home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Eindhoven away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 8 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Helmond Sport to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 21% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.05 goals for Helmond Sport and 1.43 for FC Eindhoven, a combined 3.47 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Helmond Sport win52%

Draw21%

FC Eindhoven win27%

Double chance 1X

73%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

48%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals86%

Over 2.5 goals67%

Over 3.5 goals46%

Both teams to score66%

Correct score

2–19.3%
1–19.0%
2–26.6%
2–06.5%
1–26.4%

Recent form

Helmond Sport

2026-10-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs NAC Breda · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs FC OSS · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-02T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Heracles · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z · A vs MVV · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Den Bosch · 1-2 (L)

FC Eindhoven

2026-08-21T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Den Bosch · 2-5 (L)
2026-08-14T18:00:00.000Z · H vs MVV · 2-3 (L)
2026-08-10T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Jong AZ · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · A vs SK Beveren · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-28T18:00:00.000Z · A vs PSV Eindhoven · 0-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Eerste Divisie table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Heracles	11	9	1	1	23	28
2	Almere City FC	11	7	1	3	14	22
3	VVV Venlo	11	7	1	3	12	22
4	Emmen	11	7	1	3	5	22
5	NAC Breda	11	6	2	3	3	20
6	Roda	11	5	4	2	3	19
7	Vitesse	11	5	2	4	1	17
8	FC Volendam	11	5	1	5	5	16
9	MVV	11	5	1	5	-11	16
10	Waalwijk	11	3	6	2	4	15
11	Jong AZ	11	4	2	5	4	14
12	Den Bosch	11	4	2	5	-3	14
13	Jong PSV U21	11	3	4	4	-3	13
14	FC OSS	11	4	0	7	-1	12
15	FC Eindhoven	11	3	2	6	-8	11
16	Jong Ajax	11	3	2	6	-11	11
17	De Graafschap	11	3	2	6	-11	11
18	Dordrecht	11	3	2	6	-13	11
19	Helmond Sport	11	2	3	6	-5	9
20	Jong Utrecht	11	2	1	8	-8	7
1	Heracles	10	8	1	1	19	25
2	Almere City FC	10	7	1	2	15	22
3	VVV Venlo	10	7	0	3	12	21
4	Emmen	10	6	1	3	4	19
5	NAC Breda	10	5	2	3	1	17
6	Roda	10	4	4	2	2	16
7	MVV	10	5	1	4	-7	16
8	FC Volendam	10	5	0	5	5	15
9	Waalwijk	10	3	5	2	4	14
10	Vitesse	10	4	2	4	0	14
11	Jong AZ	10	4	1	5	4	13
12	Jong PSV U21	10	3	4	3	-2	13
13	FC OSS	10	4	0	6	0	12
14	Den Bosch	10	3	2	5	-4	11
15	FC Eindhoven	10	3	2	5	-7	11
16	De Graafschap	10	3	2	5	-10	11
17	Helmond Sport	10	2	3	5	-3	9
18	Jong Ajax	10	2	2	6	-12	8
19	Dordrecht	10	2	2	6	-14	8
20	Jong Utrecht	10	2	1	7	-7	7
1	Heracles	1	1	0	0	4	3
2	NAC Breda	1	1	0	0	2	3
3	Den Bosch	1	1	0	0	1	3
4	Dordrecht	1	1	0	0	1	3
5	Emmen	1	1	0	0	1	3
6	Roda	1	1	0	0	1	3
7	Vitesse	1	1	0	0	1	3
8	Jong Ajax	1	1	0	0	1	3
9	VVV Venlo	1	0	1	0	0	1
10	FC Volendam	1	0	1	0	0	1
11	Waalwijk	1	0	1	0	0	1
12	Jong AZ	1	0	1	0	0	1
13	De Graafschap	1	0	0	1	-1	0
14	FC Eindhoven	1	0	0	1	-1	0
15	Almere City FC	1	0	0	1	-1	0
16	FC OSS	1	0	0	1	-1	0
17	Jong PSV U21	1	0	0	1	-1	0
18	Jong Utrecht	1	0	0	1	-1	0
19	Helmond Sport	1	0	0	1	-2	0
20	MVV	1	0	0	1	-4	0
1	De Graafschap	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	VVV Venlo	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Den Bosch	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Dordrecht	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	FC Eindhoven	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Emmen	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Helmond Sport	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	MVV	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Almere City FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	FC OSS	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	FC Volendam	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Waalwijk	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	NAC Breda	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Roda	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Vitesse	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Heracles	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Jong PSV U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Jong Ajax	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	Jong AZ	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Jong Utrecht	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	De Graafschap	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	VVV Venlo	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Den Bosch	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Dordrecht	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	FC Eindhoven	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Emmen	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Helmond Sport	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	MVV	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Almere City FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	FC OSS	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	FC Volendam	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Waalwijk	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	NAC Breda	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Roda	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Vitesse	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Heracles	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Jong PSV U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Jong Ajax	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	Jong AZ	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Jong Utrecht	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Helmond Sport win, at 52.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.

A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.