MySteel Stadion · Analysis updated 15:42 UTC
Helmond Sport vs Willem II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.23 expected goals for Helmond Sport and 1.14 for Willem II, a combined total of 3.37. That distribution gives Helmond Sport the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Helmond Sport win
61.9% probability
Expected goals
2.23 – 1.14
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Helmond Sport home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Willem II away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Helmond Sport to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 20% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.23 goals for Helmond Sport and 1.14 for Willem II, a combined 3.37 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
38%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.7%
- 1–18.7%
- 2–08.5%
- 1–07.6%
- 3–17.2%
Recent form
Helmond Sport
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Den Bosch · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Jong PSV U21 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · H vs VVV Venlo · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-08-28T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Jong Ajax · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-21T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Waalwijk · 1-1 (D)
Willem II
- 2026-10-11T10:15:00.000Z · A vs Utrecht · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Fortuna Sittard · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-15T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Ajax · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs AZ Alkmaar · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Excelsior · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Helmond Sport win, at 61.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.