· Analysis updated 04:42 UTC
Hemel Hempstead Town vs Maidstone Utd Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.92 expected goals for Hemel Hempstead Town and 1.26 for Maidstone Utd, a combined total of 2.18. That distribution gives Maidstone Utd the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 37% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
72.8% probability
Expected goals
0.92 – 1.26
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hemel Hempstead Town home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Maidstone Utd away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Maidstone Utd to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 27% / 29% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.92 goals for Hemel Hempstead Town and 1.26 for Maidstone Utd, a combined 2.18 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.2%
- 1–113.1%
- 0–011.3%
- 1–010.4%
- 0–28.9%
Recent form
Hemel Hempstead Town
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dagenham & Redbridge · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Slough Town · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Wingate & Finchley · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Wingate & Finchley · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Tonbridge Angels · 1-1 (D)
Maidstone Utd
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Torquay · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Maidenhead · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Horsham · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Truro City · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Cray Wanderers · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National League - South table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maidstone Utd | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 26 |
| 2 | Ebbsfleet United | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 20 | 25 |
| 3 | Truro City | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 24 |
| 4 | Dagenham & Redbridge | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 23 |
| 5 | Salisbury | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 22 |
| 6 | Billericay Town | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 21 |
| 7 | Tonbridge Angels | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 21 |
| 8 | Dorking Wanderers | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 20 |
| 9 | Farnham Town | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 20 |
| 10 | Folkestone Invicta | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 19 |
| 11 | Dover | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 19 |
| 12 | Weston-super-Mare | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 18 |
| 13 | Horsham | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 18 |
| 14 | Torquay | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 17 |
| 15 | Chelmsford City | 11 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 6 | 15 |
| 16 | Hemel Hempstead Town | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -3 | 14 |
| 17 | Farnborough | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 14 |
| 18 | Maidenhead | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -5 | 13 |
| 19 | AFC Totton | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | -12 | 13 |
| 20 | Chesham United | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -10 | 10 |
| 21 | Braintree | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -15 | 10 |
| 22 | Hampton & Richmond | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -16 | 8 |
| 23 | Walton & Hersham | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -18 | 8 |
| 24 | Slough Town | 13 | 1 | 1 | 11 | -21 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 72.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 37%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.