Focus Community Arena · Analysis updated 14:04 UTC
Hemel Hempstead Town vs Weston-super-Mare Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.85 expected goals for Hemel Hempstead Town and 1.45 for Weston-super-Mare, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives Weston-super-Mare the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Weston-super-Mare win
51.2% probability
Expected goals
0.85 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hemel Hempstead Town home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Weston-super-Mare away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
49%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.5%
- 1–112.4%
- 0–210.5%
- 0–010.0%
- 1–29.0%
Recent form
Hemel Hempstead Town
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dagenham & Redbridge · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Slough Town · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Wingate & Finchley · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Wingate & Finchley · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Tonbridge Angels · 1-1 (D)
Weston-super-Mare
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Farnham Town · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Wimborne Town · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Wimborne Town · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dagenham & Redbridge · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs AFC Totton · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-28T18:45:00.000Z · Hemel Hempstead Town 1-1 Weston-super-Mare (National League - South)
- 2026-03-31T18:45:00.000Z · Hemel Hempstead Town 0-0 Weston-super-Mare (National League - South)
- 2025-11-04T19:45:00.000Z · Hemel Hempstead Town 3-0 Weston-super-Mare (National League - South)
- 2025-02-01T15:00:00.000Z · Hemel Hempstead Town 1-1 Weston-super-Mare (National League - South)
- 2024-11-11T19:45:00.000Z · Hemel Hempstead Town 0-1 Weston-super-Mare (National League - South)
- 2024-02-17T15:00:00.000Z · Hemel Hempstead Town 1-2 Weston-super-Mare (National League - South)
- 2023-08-28T14:00:00.000Z · Hemel Hempstead Town 1-1 Weston-super-Mare (National League - South)
National League - South table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maidstone Utd | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 25 |
| 2 | Ebbsfleet United | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 16 | 22 |
| 3 | Salisbury | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 21 |
| 4 | Billericay Town | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 21 |
| 5 | Truro City | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 21 |
| 6 | Tonbridge Angels | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 20 |
| 7 | Dagenham & Redbridge | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 20 |
| 8 | Weston-super-Mare | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 18 |
| 9 | Dover | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 10 | Dorking Wanderers | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 17 |
| 11 | Farnham Town | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 17 |
| 12 | Folkestone Invicta | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 16 |
| 13 | Torquay | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 16 |
| 14 | Horsham | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | -1 | 15 |
| 15 | Chelmsford City | 10 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 14 |
| 16 | Hemel Hempstead Town | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -1 | 14 |
| 17 | Farnborough | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 14 |
| 18 | Maidenhead | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 13 |
| 19 | Chesham United | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -8 | 10 |
| 20 | Braintree | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -9 | 10 |
| 21 | AFC Totton | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -14 | 10 |
| 22 | Hampton & Richmond | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -15 | 8 |
| 23 | Walton & Hersham | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -17 | 8 |
| 24 | Slough Town | 12 | 1 | 1 | 10 | -19 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Weston-super-Mare win, at 51.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.