Hemelingen vs Werder Bremen III Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 3.15 expected goals for Hemelingen and 0.77 for Werder Bremen III, a combined total of 3.93. That distribution gives Hemelingen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 83%, with the draw at 11%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 83% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Hemelingen win

83.3% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

3.15 – 0.77

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Hemelingen home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Werder Bremen III away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hemelingen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 83%, against 83% / 11% / 6% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.15 goals for Hemelingen and 0.77 for Werder Bremen III, a combined 3.93 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Hemelingen win83%

Draw11%

Werder Bremen III win6%

Double chance 1X

94%

Double chance 12

89%

Double chance X2

17%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals90%

Over 2.5 goals75%

Over 3.5 goals55%

Both teams to score51%

Correct score

3–010.3%
2–09.8%
4–08.1%
3–18.0%
2–17.6%

Recent form

Hemelingen

2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Aumund-Vegesack · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-23T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Oberneuland · 6-0 (W)
2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Eiche Horn · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Schwachhausen · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Woltmershausen · 3-1 (W)

Werder Bremen III

2026-09-25T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Leher TS · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Grohn · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · H vs BTS Neustadt · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-06T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Schwachhausen · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-28T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Geestemünde · 2-5 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Oberliga - Bremen table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Hemelingen	10	9	1	0	37	28
2	Blumenthaler SV	10	9	0	1	29	27
3	Brinkumer SV	10	9	0	1	26	27
4	OSC Bremerhaven	10	7	1	2	28	22
5	Aumund-Vegesack	10	5	2	3	9	17
6	Geestemünde	10	4	2	4	-3	14
7	Schwachhausen	10	4	2	4	-6	14
8	Vatan Sport	10	4	1	5	-4	13
9	Union Bremen	10	3	3	4	-3	12
10	Eiche Horn	10	3	3	4	-11	12
11	Leher TS	10	3	2	5	5	11
12	Grohn	10	3	1	6	-20	10
13	BTS Neustadt	10	3	0	7	-14	9
14	Oberneuland	10	1	2	7	-29	5
15	Werder Bremen III	10	1	1	8	-17	4
16	Woltmershausen	10	1	1	8	-27	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Hemelingen win, at 83.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.

A 83% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.