· Analysis updated 13:53 UTC
Heming vs Stabaek Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.09 expected goals for Heming and 1.41 for Stabaek, a combined total of 3.50. That distribution gives Heming the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Heming win
53.2% probability
Expected goals
2.09 – 1.41
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Heming home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Stabaek away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Heming to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 21% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.09 goals for Heming and 1.41 for Stabaek, a combined 3.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.3%
- 1–18.9%
- 2–06.6%
- 2–26.6%
- 3–16.5%
Recent form
Heming
- 2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Ullern · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs SF Grei · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Frigg · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Gamle Oslo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Vålerenga II · 5-2 (W)
Stabaek
- 2026-10-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Asane · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Sandnes ULF · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Strommen · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Haugesund · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sogndal · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Heming win, at 53.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.