Heming vs Vålerenga II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.80 expected goals for Heming and 2.20 for Vålerenga II, a combined total of 5.00. That distribution gives Heming the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 87% for over 2.5 goals and 83% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Heming win

51.3% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.80 – 2.20

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Heming home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Vålerenga II away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Heming to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 18% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.80 goals for Heming and 2.20 for Vålerenga II, a combined 5.00 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Heming win51%

Draw18%

Vålerenga II win31%

Double chance 1X

69%

Double chance 12

82%

Double chance X2

49%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals96%

Over 2.5 goals87%

Over 3.5 goals73%

Both teams to score83%

Correct score

2–26.4%
3–26.0%
2–15.8%
3–15.4%
2–34.7%

Recent form

Heming

2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Ullern · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs SF Grei · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Frigg · 5-1 (W)
2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Gamle Oslo · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-30T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Vålerenga II · 5-2 (W)

Vålerenga II

2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Frigg · 4-1 (W)
2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Nordstrand · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Bærum · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Ullern · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Gamle Oslo · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

3. Division - Girone 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Asker	23	20	1	2	48	61
2	Gamle Oslo	23	14	2	7	28	44
3	Heming	23	13	5	5	22	44
4	Vålerenga II	23	13	1	9	-5	40
5	IF Ready	23	11	6	6	16	39
6	Bærum	23	11	2	10	19	35
7	Union Carl Berner	23	11	2	10	4	35
8	Frigg	23	9	6	8	1	33
9	Lokomotiv Oslo	23	8	2	13	-24	26
10	KFUM II	23	7	4	12	-19	25
11	Ullern	23	7	2	14	-18	23
12	SF Grei	23	7	1	15	-30	22
13	Nordstrand	23	6	2	15	-16	20
14	Konnerud	23	5	2	16	-26	17

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Heming win, at 51.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 83% and over 2.5 goals at 87%.

A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.