Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Henan Jianye and 1.73 for Beijing Guoan, a combined total of 2.98. That distribution gives Beijing Guoan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Beijing Guoan win

48.6% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.25 – 1.73

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Henan Jianye home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Beijing Guoan away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Beijing Guoan to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 28% / 24% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Henan Jianye and 1.73 for Beijing Guoan, a combined 2.98 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Henan Jianye win28%

Draw24%

Beijing Guoan win49%

Double chance 1X

52%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

72%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals57%

Over 3.5 goals35%

Both teams to score59%

Correct score

1–111.0%
1–29.5%
0–18.8%
0–27.6%
2–16.9%

Recent form

Henan Jianye

2026-10-16T11:35:00.000Z · H vs Tianjin Teda · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-09T11:35:00.000Z · A vs Sichuan Jiuniu · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-12T11:35:00.000Z · A vs Wuhan Three Towns · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-06T11:35:00.000Z · H vs Chengdu Better City · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-29T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Chongqing Tongliang Long · 1-1 (D)

Beijing Guoan

2026-09-15T12:15:00.000Z · H vs Pohang Steelers · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-05T11:35:00.000Z · A vs SHANGHAI SIPG · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-01T11:35:00.000Z · H vs Rizhao Yuqi · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-28T11:35:00.000Z · A vs Dalian Zhixing · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-22T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Yunnan Yukun · 3-3 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Super League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Chengdu Better City	29	15	7	7	16	52
2	Dalian Zhixing	29	15	4	10	3	49
3	Beijing Guoan	29	14	10	5	21	47
4	Shandong Luneng	29	15	5	9	10	44
5	SHANGHAI SIPG	29	13	8	8	14	42
6	Yunnan Yukun	29	11	7	11	-3	40
7	Qingdao Youth Island	29	8	15	6	-6	39
8	Shanghai Shenhua	29	14	5	10	13	37
9	Chongqing Tongliang Long	29	8	12	9	-3	36
10	Hangzhou Greentown	29	11	6	12	-3	34
11	Sichuan Jiuniu	29	9	5	15	-12	32
12	Tianjin Teda	29	11	8	10	4	31
13	Shenyang Urban	29	8	5	16	-11	29
14	Henan Jianye	29	8	10	11	-4	28
15	Wuhan Three Towns	29	5	12	12	-11	22
16	Qingdao Jonoon	29	6	3	20	-28	14

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Beijing Guoan win, at 48.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.

A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.