Sportpark Goed Genoeg · Referee M. Steur · Analysis updated 15:22 UTC
Hera United W vs Utrecht W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.72 expected goals for Hera United W and 1.49 for Utrecht W, a combined total of 3.21. That distribution gives Hera United W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.6% probability
Expected goals
1.72 – 1.49
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hera United W home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Utrecht W away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hera United W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 23% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.72 goals for Hera United W and 1.49 for Utrecht W, a combined 3.21 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.4%
- 2–18.9%
- 1–27.7%
- 1–07.0%
- 2–26.6%
Recent form
Hera United W
- 2026-05-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Utrecht W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs PEC Zwolle W · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-05-03T14:45:00.000Z · H vs PSV/Eindhoven W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-26T14:45:00.000Z · A vs NAC Breda W · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-04-05T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Heerenveen W · 2-1 (W)
Utrecht W
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Feyenoord W · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:45:00.000Z · H vs PEC Zwolle W · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-06T14:45:00.000Z · A vs AZ W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-22T12:00:00.000Z · A vs PSV/Eindhoven W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-16T10:15:00.000Z · H vs Ajax W · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Eredivisie Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Twente W | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 18 |
| 2 | Ajax W | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 15 |
| 3 | AZ W | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 12 |
| 4 | PSV/Eindhoven W | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | Heerenveen W | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 6 | ADO Den Haag W | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -10 | 7 |
| 7 | PEC Zwolle W | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 6 |
| 8 | De Graafschap W | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -5 | 6 |
| 9 | Feyenoord W | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 10 | Utrecht W | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.