Stadio Comunale Pino Zaccheria · Analysis updated 03:25 UTC
Heraclea vs Sarnese Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Heraclea and 1.33 for Sarnese, a combined total of 2.47. That distribution gives Sarnese the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.7% probability
Expected goals
1.15 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Heraclea home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sarnese away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sarnese to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 32% / 27% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.15 goals for Heraclea and 1.33 for Sarnese, a combined 2.47 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.8%
- 0–111.2%
- 1–09.7%
- 1–28.5%
- 0–08.4%
Recent form
Heraclea
- 2026-05-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Nola 1925 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ferrandina · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Martina Franca · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Barletta · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-04-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Pompei · 1-2 (L)
Sarnese
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Lodigiani · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Paganese · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ossese · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Gelbison · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Venafro · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-22T14:30:00.000Z · Heraclea 1-1 Sarnese (Serie D - Girone H)
- 2025-11-09T13:30:00.000Z · Heraclea 1-0 Sarnese (Serie D - Girone H)
Serie D - Girone H table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Virtus Francavilla | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 21 |
| 2 | Martina Franca | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 19 |
| 3 | Turris | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 19 |
| 4 | Brindisi | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 18 |
| 5 | Bisceglie | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 15 |
| 6 | Gravina | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 7 | Manfredonia | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 8 | Nocerina | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
| 9 | Fidelis Andria | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 13 |
| 10 | Gladiator | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 11 | Real Normanna | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 12 | USD Palmese | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 13 | Ebolitana | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 9 |
| 14 | Francavilla | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 8 |
| 15 | Melfi | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 8 |
| 16 | Real Forio 2014 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -4 | 7 |
| 17 | Ischia | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 | Nardò | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.