Asito Stadium · Referee W. Wiersma · Analysis updated 16:51 UTC
Heracles vs De Graafschap Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.88 expected goals for Heracles and 1.53 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 4.40. That distribution gives Heracles the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 81% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Heracles win
65.3% probability
Expected goals
2.88 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Heracles home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
De Graafschap away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Heracles to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 65% / 16% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.88 goals for Heracles and 1.53 for De Graafschap, a combined 4.40 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
35%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.7%
- 3–17.4%
- 2–25.9%
- 3–25.7%
- 1–15.4%
Recent form
Heracles
- 2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Vitesse · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Almere City FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Jong AZ · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · H vs De Graafschap · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T10:15:00.000Z · A vs FC Eindhoven · 3-1 (W)
De Graafschap
- 2026-09-27T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Den Bosch · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:45:00.000Z · H vs NAC Breda · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Emmen · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Heracles · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-08-29T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Almere City FC · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Eerste Divisie table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Heracles win, at 65.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 81%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.