Asito Stadium · Referee J. van der Laan · Analysis updated 15:25 UTC
Heracles vs Den Bosch Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.50 expected goals for Heracles and 2.00 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 4.50. That distribution gives Heracles the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 83% for over 2.5 goals and 79% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Heracles win
49.5% probability
Expected goals
2.50 – 2.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Heracles home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Den Bosch away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Heracles to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 19% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.50 goals for Heracles and 2.00 for Den Bosch, a combined 4.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–16.9%
- 2–26.9%
- 3–15.8%
- 3–25.8%
- 1–15.6%
Recent form
Heracles
- 2026-10-18T14:45:00.000Z · A vs MVV · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Waalwijk · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Helmond Sport · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Vitesse · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Almere City FC · 0-1 (L)
Den Bosch
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Helmond Sport · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:45:00.000Z · A vs FC Volendam · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-07T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Jong PSV U21 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-28T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Vitesse · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-21T18:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Eindhoven · 5-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-14T18:00:00.000Z · Heracles 3-2 Den Bosch (Eerste Divisie)
- 2023-03-26T12:30:00.000Z · Heracles 3-2 Den Bosch (Eerste Divisie)
- 2022-09-30T18:00:00.000Z · Heracles 2-1 Den Bosch (Eerste Divisie)
- 2018-09-25T17:45:00.000Z · Heracles 2-1 Den Bosch (KNVB Beker)
Eerste Divisie table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Heracles win, at 49.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 79% and over 2.5 goals at 83%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.