Asito Stadium · Analysis updated 15:22 UTC
Heracles vs Jong AZ Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.95 expected goals for Heracles and 2.25 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 5.20. That distribution gives Heracles the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 89% for over 2.5 goals and 84% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Heracles win
53.0% probability
Expected goals
2.95 – 2.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Heracles home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Jong AZ away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Heracles to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 17% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.95 goals for Heracles and 2.25 for Jong AZ, a combined 5.20 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–26.1%
- 3–26.0%
- 2–15.4%
- 3–15.3%
- 2–34.6%
Recent form
Heracles
- 2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Vitesse · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Almere City FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Jong AZ · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · H vs De Graafschap · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T10:15:00.000Z · A vs FC Eindhoven · 3-1 (W)
Jong AZ
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Volendam · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-14T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Jong PSV U21 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Heracles · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Dordrecht · 6-3 (W)
- 2026-08-31T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Jong Utrecht · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Eerste Divisie table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Heracles win, at 53.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 84% and over 2.5 goals at 89%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.