Heracles vs Vitesse Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.38 expected goals for Heracles and 2.33 for Vitesse, a combined total of 4.70. That distribution gives Heracles the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 85% for over 2.5 goals and 82% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

60.4% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.38 – 2.33

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Heracles home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Vitesse away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Heracles to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 19% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.38 goals for Heracles and 2.33 for Vitesse, a combined 4.70 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Heracles win41%

Draw19%

Vitesse win40%

Double chance 1X

60%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

59%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals95%

Over 2.5 goals85%

Over 3.5 goals69%

Both teams to score82%

Correct score

2–26.9%
2–16.0%
1–25.8%
3–25.5%
2–35.4%

Recent form

Heracles

2026-10-18T14:45:00.000Z · A vs MVV · 5-1 (W)
2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Waalwijk · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-02T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Helmond Sport · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Vitesse · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Almere City FC · 0-1 (L)

Vitesse

2026-10-23T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Emmen · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-16T18:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Eindhoven · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Volendam · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-03T14:30:00.000Z · H vs NAC Breda · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Heracles · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Eerste Divisie table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Heracles	12	9	2	1	23	29
2	VVV Venlo	12	8	1	3	14	25
3	Emmen	12	8	1	3	7	25
4	Almere City FC	12	7	1	4	13	22
5	Roda	12	6	4	2	4	22
6	NAC Breda	12	6	3	3	3	21
7	FC Volendam	12	6	1	5	9	19
8	Jong AZ	12	5	2	5	5	17
9	Vitesse	12	5	2	5	-1	17
10	MVV	12	5	2	5	-11	17
11	Waalwijk	12	3	7	2	4	16
12	Jong PSV U21	12	4	4	4	-2	16
13	Den Bosch	12	4	3	5	-3	15
14	FC OSS	12	4	1	7	-1	13
15	Jong Ajax	12	3	3	6	-11	12
16	De Graafschap	12	3	3	6	-11	12
17	FC Eindhoven	12	3	2	7	-9	11
18	Dordrecht	12	3	2	7	-15	11
19	Helmond Sport	12	2	3	7	-6	9
20	Jong Utrecht	12	2	1	9	-12	7
1	Heracles	10	8	1	1	19	25
2	Almere City FC	10	7	1	2	15	22
3	VVV Venlo	10	7	0	3	12	21
4	Emmen	10	6	1	3	4	19
5	NAC Breda	10	5	2	3	1	17
6	Roda	10	4	4	2	2	16
7	MVV	10	5	1	4	-7	16
8	FC Volendam	10	5	0	5	5	15
9	Waalwijk	10	3	5	2	4	14
10	Vitesse	10	4	2	4	0	14
11	Jong AZ	10	4	1	5	4	13
12	Jong PSV U21	10	3	4	3	-2	13
13	FC OSS	10	4	0	6	0	12
14	Den Bosch	10	3	2	5	-4	11
15	FC Eindhoven	10	3	2	5	-7	11
16	De Graafschap	10	3	2	5	-10	11
17	Helmond Sport	10	2	3	5	-3	9
18	Jong Ajax	10	2	2	6	-12	8
19	Dordrecht	10	2	2	6	-14	8
20	Jong Utrecht	10	2	1	7	-7	7
1	Emmen	2	2	0	0	3	6
2	Roda	2	2	0	0	2	6
3	FC Volendam	2	1	1	0	4	4
4	Heracles	2	1	1	0	4	4
5	VVV Venlo	2	1	1	0	2	4
6	NAC Breda	2	1	1	0	2	4
7	Den Bosch	2	1	1	0	1	4
8	Jong Ajax	2	1	1	0	1	4
9	Jong AZ	2	1	1	0	1	4
10	Jong PSV U21	2	1	0	1	0	3
11	Dordrecht	2	1	0	1	-1	3
12	Vitesse	2	1	0	1	-1	3
13	Waalwijk	2	0	2	0	0	2
14	De Graafschap	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	FC OSS	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	MVV	2	0	1	1	-4	1
17	FC Eindhoven	2	0	0	2	-2	0
18	Almere City FC	2	0	0	2	-2	0
19	Helmond Sport	2	0	0	2	-3	0
20	Jong Utrecht	2	0	0	2	-5	0
1	De Graafschap	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	VVV Venlo	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Den Bosch	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Dordrecht	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	FC Eindhoven	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Emmen	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Helmond Sport	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	MVV	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Almere City FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	FC OSS	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	FC Volendam	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Waalwijk	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	NAC Breda	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Roda	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Vitesse	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Heracles	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Jong PSV U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Jong Ajax	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	Jong AZ	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Jong Utrecht	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	De Graafschap	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	VVV Venlo	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Den Bosch	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Dordrecht	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	FC Eindhoven	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Emmen	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Helmond Sport	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	MVV	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Almere City FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	FC OSS	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	FC Volendam	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Waalwijk	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	NAC Breda	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Roda	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Vitesse	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Heracles	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Jong PSV U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Jong Ajax	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	Jong AZ	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Jong Utrecht	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 60.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 82% and over 2.5 goals at 85%.

A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.