Herbania vs Real Unión de Tenerife Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.06 expected goals for Herbania and 1.18 for Real Unión de Tenerife, a combined total of 2.24. That distribution gives Real Unión de Tenerife the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

67.2% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.06 – 1.18

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Herbania home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Real Unión de Tenerife away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Real Unión de Tenerife to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 33% / 29% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.06 goals for Herbania and 1.18 for Real Unión de Tenerife, a combined 2.24 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Herbania win33%

Draw29%

Real Unión de Tenerife win39%

Double chance 1X

61%

Double chance 12

71%

Double chance X2

67%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals66%

Over 2.5 goals39%

Over 3.5 goals19%

Both teams to score45%

Correct score

1–113.3%
0–112.5%
1–011.3%
0–010.6%
1–27.9%

Recent form

Herbania

2026-05-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Paso · 1-1 (D)
2026-05-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Tenisca · 0-4 (L)
2026-04-25T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Unión de Tenerife · 1-0 (W)
2026-04-22T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Telde · 1-1 (D)
2026-04-18T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Tamaraceite · 1-4 (L)

Real Unión de Tenerife

2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Playas Sotavento · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-02T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Laguna de Duero · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-26T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Panadería Pulido · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-18T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Marino · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Los Llanos · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	UD San Fernando	6	5	0	1	14	15
2	Panadería Pulido	6	4	1	1	6	13
3	Real Unión de Tenerife	6	4	1	1	5	13
4	Mensajero	6	3	2	1	2	11
5	Marino	6	3	1	2	6	10
6	Tenerife C	6	3	1	2	3	10
7	Los Llanos	6	3	1	2	3	10
8	San Miguel	6	3	1	2	2	10
9	Las Palmas III	6	2	3	1	3	9
10	San Bartolomé	6	2	3	1	1	9
11	Unión Sur Yaiza	6	2	1	3	-1	7
12	Estrella	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	Lanzarote	6	1	3	2	-3	6
14	Villa Santa Brígida	6	1	3	2	-4	6
15	Anaza	6	1	2	3	-5	5
16	Laguna de Duero	6	0	2	4	-6	2
17	Villaverde Norte	6	0	2	4	-8	2
18	Playas Sotavento	6	0	2	4	-15	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.