· Analysis updated 09:02 UTC
Hercílio Luz vs Metropolitano Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.39 expected goals for Hercílio Luz and 1.44 for Metropolitano, a combined total of 3.83. That distribution gives Hercílio Luz the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Hercílio Luz win
58.6% probability
Expected goals
2.39 – 1.44
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hercílio Luz home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Metropolitano away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hercílio Luz to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 19% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.39 goals for Hercílio Luz and 1.44 for Metropolitano, a combined 3.83 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.9%
- 1–17.5%
- 3–17.1%
- 2–26.4%
- 2–06.2%
Recent form
Hercílio Luz
- 2026-07-25T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Nação · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-22T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Caravaggio · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Tubarao · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-15T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Juventus SC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Blumenau · 2-0 (W)
Metropolitano
- 2026-10-24T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Nação · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-17T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Santa Catarina · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Barra · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Figueirense · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Blumenau · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-30T18:00:00.000Z · Hercílio Luz 4-2 Metropolitano (Copa Santa Catarina)
- 2026-06-21T18:00:00.000Z · Hercílio Luz 3-0 Metropolitano (Catarinense - 2)
- 2026-05-03T18:00:00.000Z · Hercílio Luz 0-0 Metropolitano (Catarinense - 2)
- 2021-03-27T19:00:00.000Z · Hercílio Luz 2-2 Metropolitano (Catarinense - 1)
Copa Santa Catarina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Figueirense | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 17 |
| 2 | Hercílio Luz | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 13 |
| 3 | Marcílio Dias | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 12 |
| 4 | Joinville | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 5 | Metropolitano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 6 | Barra | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 7 | Santa Catarina | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 7 |
| 8 | Blumenau | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 9 | Nação | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Hercílio Luz win, at 58.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.