Ciudad Deportiva de Alicante F-11 · Analysis updated 03:01 UTC
Hércules II vs Vall de Uxó Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.75 expected goals for Hércules II and 0.98 for Vall de Uxó, a combined total of 1.73. That distribution gives Vall de Uxó the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 25% for over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
72.9% probability
Expected goals
0.75 – 0.98
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hércules II home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Vall de Uxó away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Vall de Uxó to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 27% / 33% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.75 goals for Hércules II and 0.98 for Vall de Uxó, a combined 1.73 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
67%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–017.8%
- 0–117.4%
- 1–013.4%
- 1–113.0%
- 0–28.5%
Recent form
Hércules II
- 2026-10-09T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Torrent · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Eldense B · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Atzeneta · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Torrellano · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Jove Español · 2-2 (D)
Vall de Uxó
- 2026-05-09T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Utiel · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-02T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Saguntino · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-04-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Alzira · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-04-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Jove Español · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Roda · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Villarreal III | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 21 |
| 2 | Levante II | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 17 |
| 3 | Vall de Uxó | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 13 |
| 4 | Hércules II | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 5 | Acero | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 6 | Torrent | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Eldense B | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 8 | Crevillente | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 | Roda | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 10 | Atzeneta | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 11 | Saguntino | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 12 | Buñol | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 8 |
| 13 | SC Torrevieja | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 14 | Ontinyent 1931 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 15 | Torrellano | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 16 | Soneja | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 7 |
| 17 | Jove Español | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 6 |
| 18 | Utiel | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 72.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 33% and over 2.5 goals at 25%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.