· Referee J. Roca · Analysis updated 15:12 UTC
Hércules vs Atlético Madrid II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Hércules and 2.00 for Atlético Madrid II, a combined total of 3.50. That distribution gives Atlético Madrid II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Atlético Madrid II win
49.3% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 2.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hércules home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Atlético Madrid II away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Atlético Madrid II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 29% / 22% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for Hércules and 2.00 for Atlético Madrid II, a combined 3.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.1%
- 1–29.1%
- 2–16.8%
- 2–26.8%
- 1–36.0%
Recent form
Hércules
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Jaén · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Águilas · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Juventud Torremolinos · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Europa Fc · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Madrid II · 0-2 (L)
Atlético Madrid II
- 2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimnastic · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Zaragoza · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-10-02T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Real Madrid II · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Villarreal II · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Huesca · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera División RFEF - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Villarreal II | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
| 2 | Zaragoza | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 17 |
| 3 | Real Murcia | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 16 |
| 4 | FC Cartagena | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 15 |
| 5 | Real Jaén | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 15 |
| 6 | Alcorcon | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 13 |
| 7 | Ibiza | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 13 |
| 8 | Hércules | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 13 |
| 9 | Real Madrid II | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 10 | Huesca | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 |
| 11 | Gimnastic | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 12 | Antequera | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 13 | Algeciras | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 10 |
| 14 | Atlético Madrid II | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 15 | Sant Andreu | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 16 | Europa Fc | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 7 |
| 17 | Águilas | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 18 | Teruel | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -11 | 5 |
| 19 | Rayo Majadahonda | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -4 | 4 |
| 20 | Juventud Torremolinos | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Atlético Madrid II win, at 49.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.