· Analysis updated 15:26 UTC
Hércules vs Castellón Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.92 expected goals for Hércules and 1.18 for Castellón, a combined total of 2.10. That distribution gives Castellón the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
71.4% probability
Expected goals
0.92 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hércules home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Castellón away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Castellón to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 29% / 30% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.92 goals for Hércules and 1.18 for Castellón, a combined 2.10 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.4%
- 1–113.3%
- 0–012.2%
- 1–011.3%
- 0–28.5%
Recent form
Hércules
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Jaén · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Águilas · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Juventud Torremolinos · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Europa Fc · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Madrid II · 0-2 (L)
Castellón
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Andorra · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-04T16:30:00.000Z · H vs AD Ceuta FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-28T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Leganes · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Tenerife · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Girona · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 71.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.