· Referee J. Caballero · Analysis updated 03:42 UTC
Hércules vs Real Jaén Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.83 expected goals for Hércules and 1.65 for Real Jaén, a combined total of 2.47. That distribution gives Real Jaén the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Real Jaén win
57.0% probability
Expected goals
0.83 – 1.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hércules home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Real Jaén away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Real Jaén to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 19% / 24% / 57% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.83 goals for Hércules and 1.65 for Real Jaén, a combined 2.47 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
43%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
81%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.9%
- 0–211.5%
- 1–111.5%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–08.4%
Recent form
Hércules
- 2026-10-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Algeciras · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-12T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Sant Andreu · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Jaén · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Águilas · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Juventud Torremolinos · 1-0 (W)
Real Jaén
- 2026-09-19T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Ibiza · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Teruel · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Huesca · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-30T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Europa Fc · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Cordoba · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
No previous meetings were found between these teams. The prediction is still calculated from current form, home and away performance, goals data, team strength and competition statistics.
Primera División RFEF - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Villarreal II | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 20 |
| 2 | Zaragoza | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 20 |
| 3 | Real Jaén | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 4 | Real Murcia | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 16 |
| 5 | FC Cartagena | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 15 |
| 6 | Alcorcon | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 14 |
| 7 | Gimnastic | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 8 | Ibiza | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 9 | Algeciras | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
| 10 | Hércules | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 13 |
| 11 | Huesca | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 12 |
| 12 | Real Madrid II | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 13 | Antequera | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 14 | Atlético Madrid II | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 10 |
| 15 | Sant Andreu | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| 16 | Rayo Majadahonda | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -3 | 7 |
| 17 | Águilas | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 18 | Europa Fc | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 7 |
| 19 | Juventud Torremolinos | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -9 | 6 |
| 20 | Teruel | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -11 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Real Jaén win, at 57.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.