Hércules vs Real Murcia Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.11 expected goals for Hércules and 1.11 for Real Murcia, a combined total of 2.22. That distribution gives Real Murcia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

64.6% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.11 – 1.11

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Hércules home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Real Murcia away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Real Murcia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 36%, against 35% / 29% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.11 goals for Hércules and 1.11 for Real Murcia, a combined 2.22 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Hércules win35%

Draw29%

Real Murcia win36%

Double chance 1X

64%

Double chance 12

71%

Double chance X2

65%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals65%

Over 2.5 goals38%

Over 3.5 goals18%

Both teams to score45%

Correct score

1–113.4%
0–112.1%
1–012.1%
0–010.9%
1–27.4%

Recent form

Hércules

2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Jaén · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Águilas · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-20T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Juventud Torremolinos · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Europa Fc · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-06T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Madrid II · 0-2 (L)

Real Murcia

2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Gimnastic · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-30T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Navalcarnero · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Europa Fc · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-16T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Orihuela · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-13T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Madrid II · 0-4 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Zaragoza	6	5	0	1	6	15
2	Villarreal II	6	4	1	1	6	13
3	Alcorcon	6	3	3	0	9	12
4	Real Murcia	6	4	0	2	3	12
5	FC Cartagena	6	3	2	1	5	11
6	Real Jaén	6	3	2	1	3	11
7	Hércules	6	3	1	2	0	10
8	Antequera	6	2	3	1	2	9
9	Ibiza	6	3	0	3	0	9
10	Huesca	6	2	3	1	0	9
11	Atlético Madrid II	6	2	2	2	3	8
12	Real Madrid II	6	2	2	2	1	8
13	Sant Andreu	6	2	2	2	0	8
14	Gimnastic	6	2	1	3	-2	7
15	Algeciras	6	2	1	3	-3	7
16	Águilas	6	1	2	3	-5	5
17	Rayo Majadahonda	6	1	1	4	-2	4
18	Europa Fc	6	1	1	4	-6	4
19	Teruel	6	0	2	4	-10	2
20	Juventud Torremolinos	6	0	1	5	-10	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.

A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.