Herd vs Melhus Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.88 expected goals for Herd and 1.98 for Melhus, a combined total of 3.85. That distribution gives Melhus the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

62.5% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.88 – 1.98

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Herd home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Melhus away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Melhus to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 38% / 21% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.88 goals for Herd and 1.98 for Melhus, a combined 3.85 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Herd win38%

Draw21%

Melhus win41%

Double chance 1X

59%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

63%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals90%

Over 2.5 goals74%

Over 3.5 goals54%

Both teams to score73%

Correct score

1–17.9%
1–27.8%
2–17.4%
2–27.3%
1–35.1%

Recent form

Herd

2026-10-09T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Spjelkavik · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-02T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Molde II · 2-6 (L)
2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kvik Trondheim · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Byåsen · 1-6 (L)
2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Orkla · 2-2 (D)

Melhus

2026-10-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Aalesund II · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Rosenborg II · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Spjelkavik · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Molde II · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Volda · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

3. Division - Girone 2 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Strindheim	24	16	4	4	39	52
2	Volda	24	16	4	4	38	52
3	Melhus	24	12	5	7	26	41
4	Byåsen	24	11	5	8	7	38
5	Molde II	24	10	5	9	-11	35
6	Rosenborg II	24	10	4	10	9	34
7	Nardo	24	10	3	11	14	33
8	Herd	24	9	5	10	-7	32
9	Spjelkavik	24	8	5	11	-8	29
10	NTNUI	24	7	7	10	-16	28
11	Ranheim II	24	7	5	12	-17	26
12	Kvik Trondheim	24	7	5	12	-21	26
13	Aalesund II	24	7	4	13	-23	25
14	Orkla	24	5	5	14	-30	20

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 62.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.

A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.