· Analysis updated 00:59 UTC
Herd vs Orkla Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.93 expected goals for Herd and 2.00 for Orkla, a combined total of 4.93. That distribution gives Herd the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 87% for over 2.5 goals and 82% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Herd win
57.1% probability
Expected goals
2.93 – 2.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Herd home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Orkla away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Herd to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 17% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.93 goals for Herd and 2.00 for Orkla, a combined 4.93 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–16.2%
- 2–26.2%
- 3–16.1%
- 3–26.1%
- 4–14.4%
Recent form
Herd
- 2026-10-24T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Strindheim · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-17T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Nardo · 0-11 (L)
- 2026-10-09T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Spjelkavik · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-02T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Molde II · 2-6 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kvik Trondheim · 0-0 (D)
Orkla
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Volda · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Byåsen · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Aalesund II · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Herd · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs NTNUI · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. Division - Girone 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Strindheim | 25 | 17 | 4 | 4 | 43 | 55 |
| 2 | Volda | 25 | 17 | 4 | 4 | 41 | 55 |
| 3 | Melhus | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 26 | 42 |
| 4 | Byåsen | 25 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 41 |
| 5 | Molde II | 25 | 10 | 5 | 10 | -14 | 35 |
| 6 | Rosenborg II | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 34 |
| 7 | Nardo | 25 | 10 | 3 | 12 | 13 | 33 |
| 8 | Herd | 25 | 9 | 5 | 11 | -11 | 32 |
| 9 | Spjelkavik | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | -11 | 29 |
| 10 | NTNUI | 25 | 7 | 8 | 10 | -16 | 29 |
| 11 | Ranheim II | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | -17 | 26 |
| 12 | Kvik Trondheim | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | -21 | 26 |
| 13 | Aalesund II | 24 | 7 | 4 | 13 | -23 | 25 |
| 14 | Orkla | 25 | 6 | 5 | 14 | -29 | 23 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Herd win, at 57.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 82% and over 2.5 goals at 87%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.