Edgar Street · Analysis updated 16:21 UTC
Hereford vs Radcliffe Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Hereford and 0.75 for Radcliffe, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives Hereford the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Hereford win
55.1% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 0.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hereford home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Radcliffe away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.8%
- 1–111.9%
- 2–011.9%
- 0–010.5%
- 2–18.9%
Recent form
Hereford
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hednesford Town · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bedford Town · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Stafford Rangers · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs South Shields · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Harborough Town · 3-0 (W)
Radcliffe
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hednesford Town · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Marine · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Oxford City · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Hebburn Town · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bedford Town · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-18T18:45:00.000Z · Hereford 3-0 Radcliffe (National League - North)
- 2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · Hereford 3-1 Radcliffe (National League - North)
- 2025-12-13T15:00:00.000Z · Hereford 1-1 Radcliffe (FA Trophy)
- 2025-08-25T14:00:00.000Z · Hereford 0-1 Radcliffe (National League - North)
- 2025-01-25T15:00:00.000Z · Hereford 2-3 Radcliffe (National League - North)
- 2024-08-26T14:00:00.000Z · Hereford 3-3 Radcliffe (National League - North)
National League - North table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Macclesfield | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 24 |
| 2 | Hereford | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 23 |
| 3 | Oxford City | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 23 |
| 4 | King's Lynn Town | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 20 |
| 5 | Chester | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 20 |
| 6 | South Shields | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 20 |
| 7 | Hednesford Town | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 18 |
| 8 | Hebburn Town | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 18 |
| 9 | Spalding United | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 17 |
| 10 | Chorley | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 17 |
| 11 | Buxton | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 17 |
| 12 | Bedford Town | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 16 |
| 13 | Worksop Town | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 16 |
| 14 | Scarborough Athletic | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 15 |
| 15 | Merthyr Town | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 16 | Marine | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 15 |
| 17 | Harborough Town | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 15 |
| 18 | Brackley Town | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -8 | 15 |
| 19 | Morecambe | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 14 |
| 20 | Radcliffe | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | -6 | 12 |
| 21 | AFC Telford United | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -7 | 12 |
| 22 | Southport | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -10 | 9 |
| 23 | Darlington 1883 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -10 | 8 |
| 24 | Spennymoor Town | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -11 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Hereford win, at 55.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.