Sportovni areal FK Jiskra Hermanuv Mestec · Analysis updated 04:42 UTC
Hermanuv Mestec vs Hlinsko Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.82 expected goals for Hermanuv Mestec and 1.23 for Hlinsko, a combined total of 3.05. That distribution gives Hermanuv Mestec the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Hermanuv Mestec win
51.3% probability
Expected goals
1.82 – 1.23
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hlinsko away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hermanuv Mestec to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 23% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.82 goals for Hermanuv Mestec and 1.23 for Hlinsko, a combined 3.05 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 59% and both teams to score at 59%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.6%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–08.6%
- 2–07.8%
- 1–26.5%
Recent form
Hermanuv Mestec
- 2026-08-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sokol Zápy · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-01T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Hlinsko · 3-0 (W)
Hlinsko
- 2026-10-24T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Turnov · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-18T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Spartak Police n/Metují · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Kosmonosy · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-10-04T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Chlumec nad Cidlinou · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Vysoké Mýto · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-01T15:00:00.000Z · Hermanuv Mestec 3-0 Hlinsko (Cup)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Hermanuv Mestec win, at 51.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.