Estadio Los Milagros · Analysis updated 17:44 UTC
Herrera vs San Francisco FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.13 expected goals for Herrera and 2.33 for San Francisco FC, a combined total of 3.46. That distribution gives San Francisco FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
San Francisco FC win
64.2% probability
Expected goals
1.13 – 2.33
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Herrera home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
San Francisco FC away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates San Francisco FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 17% / 19% / 64% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.13 goals for Herrera and 2.33 for San Francisco FC, a combined 3.46 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
36%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
83%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.6%
- 0–28.6%
- 1–18.3%
- 1–37.5%
- 0–17.4%
Recent form
Herrera
- 2026-10-04T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Alianza FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T01:30:00.000Z · A vs CD Arabe Unido · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Tauro FC · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-09-13T21:00:00.000Z · H vs UMECIT · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Plaza Amador · 1-4 (L)
San Francisco FC
- 2026-09-15T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Sporting San Miguelito · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T23:15:00.000Z · A vs Alianza FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T01:30:00.000Z · H vs Plaza Amador · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-23T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Veraguas · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-08-15T01:30:00.000Z · H vs Independiente de La Chorrera · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Panameña de Fútbol table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Plaza Amador | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 31 |
| 2 | Alianza FC | 16 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 27 |
| 3 | UMECIT | 16 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 25 |
| 4 | Veraguas | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 25 |
| 5 | Union Cocle | 16 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 23 |
| 6 | Tauro FC | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 21 |
| 7 | CD Arabe Unido | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 21 |
| 8 | Independiente de La Chorrera | 16 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 20 |
| 9 | San Francisco FC | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | -3 | 20 |
| 10 | Sporting San Miguelito | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | -2 | 18 |
| 11 | Deportivo Universitario | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -8 | 14 |
| 12 | Herrera | 16 | 1 | 5 | 10 | -24 | 8 |
| 1 | Plaza Amador | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 27 |
| 2 | San Francisco FC | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 23 |
| 3 | CD Arabe Unido | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 22 |
| 4 | UMECIT | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 19 |
| 5 | Veraguas | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 18 |
| 6 | Tauro FC | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Independiente de La Chorrera | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 14 |
| 8 | Alianza FC | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 14 |
| 9 | Sporting San Miguelito | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -1 | 13 |
| 10 | Deportivo Universitario | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -3 | 11 |
| 11 | Herrera | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -14 | 11 |
| 12 | Union Cocle | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | -14 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is San Francisco FC win, at 64.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.