Hertha Berlin vs FC Heidenheim Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.86 expected goals for Hertha Berlin and 1.56 for FC Heidenheim, a combined total of 4.43. That distribution gives Hertha Berlin the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 82% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Hertha Berlin win

64.4% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.86 – 1.56

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

FC Heidenheim away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hertha Berlin to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 64% / 17% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.86 goals for Hertha Berlin and 1.56 for FC Heidenheim, a combined 4.43 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 82% and both teams to score at 74%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.

Match result (1X2)

Hertha Berlin win64%

Draw17%

FC Heidenheim win19%

Double chance 1X

81%

Double chance 12

83%

Double chance X2

36%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals93%

Over 2.5 goals82%

Over 3.5 goals64%

Both teams to score74%

Correct score

2–17.7%
3–17.3%
2–26.0%
3–25.7%
1–15.3%

Recent form

Hertha Berlin

2026-10-02T11:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Augsburg · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hertha Zehlendorf · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-19T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Dynamo Dresden · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T11:30:00.000Z · A vs VfL Osnabrück · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-06T11:30:00.000Z · H vs 1. FC Magdeburg · 2-1 (W)

FC Heidenheim

2026-09-25T14:30:00.000Z · A vs VfB Stuttgart · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-20T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Arminia Bielefeld · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-13T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Holstein Kiel · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-06T11:30:00.000Z · A vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-29T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Dynamo Dresden · 5-3 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

2. Bundesliga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Hertha BSC	6	6	0	0	10	18
2	1. FC Nürnberg	6	5	1	0	10	16
3	1. FC Heidenheim	6	4	1	1	2	13
4	VfL Wolfsburg	6	3	2	1	7	11
5	1. FC Kaiserslautern	6	3	2	1	2	11
6	1. FC Magdeburg	6	3	1	2	2	10
7	Energie Cottbus	6	2	2	2	1	8
8	FC St. Pauli	6	1	4	1	0	7
9	VfL Bochum	6	2	1	3	-1	7
10	Hannover 96	6	2	1	3	-2	7
11	VfL Osnabrück	6	2	1	3	-3	7
12	SpVgg Greuther Fürth	6	1	3	2	-2	6
13	Arminia Bielefeld	6	1	2	3	-2	5
14	Karlsruher SC	6	1	2	3	-6	5
15	Eintracht Braunschweig	6	1	1	4	-1	4
16	Holstein Kiel	6	0	4	2	-3	4
17	Dynamo Dresden	6	1	1	4	-6	4
18	SV Darmstadt 98	6	1	1	4	-8	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Hertha Berlin win, at 64.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 82%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.