Olympiastadion · Referee Tobias Stieler, Germany · Analysis updated 13:49 UTC
Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.48 expected goals for Hertha BSC and 1.50 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined total of 3.98. That distribution gives Hertha BSC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Hertha BSC win
58.9% probability
Expected goals
2.48 – 1.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hertha BSC home form
9 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.6%
- 3–17.1%
- 1–17.0%
- 2–26.5%
- 2–05.8%
Recent form
Hertha BSC
- 2026-10-24T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Arminia Bielefeld · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-16T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Holstein Kiel · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-11T11:30:00.000Z · H vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-02T11:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Augsburg · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hertha Zehlendorf · 3-1 (W)
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Braunschweig · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Hertha BSC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-01T15:30:00.000Z · A vs VfB Stuttgart · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-18T16:30:00.000Z · H vs 1. FC Magdeburg · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs VfL Bochum · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-10T11:30:00.000Z · Hertha BSC 2-1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth (2. Bundesliga)
- 2025-12-12T17:30:00.000Z · Hertha BSC 3-3 SpVgg Greuther Fürth (2. Bundesliga)
- 2025-05-04T11:30:00.000Z · Hertha BSC 1-0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth (2. Bundesliga)
- 2024-12-07T12:00:00.000Z · Hertha BSC 1-2 SpVgg Greuther Fürth (2. Bundesliga)
- 2024-02-11T12:30:00.000Z · Hertha BSC 2-1 SpVgg Greuther Furth (2. Bundesliga)
- 2023-08-26T11:00:00.000Z · Hertha BSC 5-0 SpVgg Greuther Furth (2. Bundesliga)
- 2022-02-12T14:30:00.000Z · Hertha BSC 1-2 SpVgg Greuther Furth (Bundesliga)
- 2021-09-17T18:30:00.000Z · Hertha BSC 2-1 SpVgg Greuther Furth (Bundesliga)
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hertha BSC | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 25 |
| 2 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 18 |
| 3 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 18 |
| 4 | VfL Wolfsburg | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 16 |
| 5 | 1. FC Magdeburg | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 16 |
| 6 | 1. FC Heidenheim | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 15 |
| 7 | FC St. Pauli | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | VfL Osnabrück | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 9 | Arminia Bielefeld | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Eintracht Braunschweig | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | Energie Cottbus | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 12 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 9 |
| 13 | Holstein Kiel | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 14 | VfL Bochum | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 8 |
| 15 | Dynamo Dresden | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 16 | Hannover 96 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 17 | Karlsruher SC | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 8 |
| 18 | SV Darmstadt 98 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Hertha BSC win, at 58.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.