Olympiastadion · Referee Tobias Stieler, Germany · Analysis updated 15:18 UTC
Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for Hertha BSC and 1.05 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Hertha BSC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Hertha BSC win
58.3% probability
Expected goals
1.95 – 1.05
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 8 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hertha BSC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 22% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.95 goals for Hertha BSC and 1.05 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.2%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–09.7%
- 2–09.5%
- 3–16.5%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.2%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.50 (model 44.3% vs market 36.5%, edge +7.8 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.50 | 36.5% | 44.3% | 2.26 | +7.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.18 | 79.8% | 80.0% | 1.25 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Away | 4.60 | 19.9% | 20.0% | 5.00 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 1.57 | 58.3% | 58.3% | 1.72 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.20 | 21.8% | 21.7% | 4.61 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.20 | 78.4% | 78.3% | 1.28 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.25 | 41.8% | 41.7% | 2.40 | -0.1 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.44 | 63.5% | 55.7% | 1.80 | -7.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Hertha BSC
- 2026-10-02T11:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Augsburg · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hertha Zehlendorf · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Dynamo Dresden · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T11:30:00.000Z · A vs VfL Osnabrück · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T11:30:00.000Z · H vs 1. FC Magdeburg · 2-1 (W)
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
- 2026-10-01T15:30:00.000Z · A vs VfB Stuttgart · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-18T16:30:00.000Z · H vs 1. FC Magdeburg · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs VfL Bochum · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T11:30:00.000Z · H vs 1. FC Heidenheim · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Energie Cottbus · 4-3 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-10T11:30:00.000Z · Hertha BSC 2-1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth (2. Bundesliga)
- 2025-12-12T17:30:00.000Z · Hertha BSC 3-3 SpVgg Greuther Fürth (2. Bundesliga)
- 2025-05-04T11:30:00.000Z · Hertha BSC 1-0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth (2. Bundesliga)
- 2024-12-07T12:00:00.000Z · Hertha BSC 1-2 SpVgg Greuther Fürth (2. Bundesliga)
- 2024-02-11T12:30:00.000Z · Hertha BSC 2-1 SpVgg Greuther Furth (2. Bundesliga)
- 2023-08-26T11:00:00.000Z · Hertha BSC 5-0 SpVgg Greuther Furth (2. Bundesliga)
- 2022-02-12T14:30:00.000Z · Hertha BSC 1-2 SpVgg Greuther Furth (Bundesliga)
- 2021-09-17T18:30:00.000Z · Hertha BSC 2-1 SpVgg Greuther Furth (Bundesliga)
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hertha BSC | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 22 |
| 2 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 18 |
| 3 | VfL Wolfsburg | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 15 |
| 4 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 15 |
| 5 | 1. FC Heidenheim | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 14 |
| 6 | 1. FC Magdeburg | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | FC St. Pauli | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 8 | Arminia Bielefeld | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | Energie Cottbus | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 10 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 11 | Dynamo Dresden | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 12 | VfL Osnabrück | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 13 | Karlsruher SC | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 14 | Hannover 96 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 15 | Eintracht Braunschweig | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 7 |
| 16 | VfL Bochum | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 7 |
| 17 | SV Darmstadt 98 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -10 | 7 |
| 18 | Holstein Kiel | 8 | 0 | 5 | 3 | -4 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Hertha BSC win, at 58.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.