Hertha Wiesbach vs Ahrweiler Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Hertha Wiesbach and 1.48 for Ahrweiler, a combined total of 2.98. That distribution gives Hertha Wiesbach the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

62.7% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.50 – 1.48

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Hertha Wiesbach home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ahrweiler away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hertha Wiesbach to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 24% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for Hertha Wiesbach and 1.48 for Ahrweiler, a combined 2.98 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Hertha Wiesbach win38%

Draw24%

Ahrweiler win37%

Double chance 1X

63%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

62%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals57%

Over 3.5 goals35%

Both teams to score60%

Correct score

1–111.3%
2–18.5%
1–28.3%
1–07.7%
0–17.5%

Recent form

Hertha Wiesbach

2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Eisbachtal · 4-1 (W)
2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Diefflen · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Mechtersheim · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Wormatia Worms · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Ahrweiler · 2-0 (W)

Ahrweiler

2026-10-18T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Elversberg II · 0-3 (L)
2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Mechtersheim · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-04T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Pirmasens · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Wormatia Worms · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · H vs TuS RW Koblenz · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Mechtersheim	13	9	1	3	12	28
2	Schott Mainz	13	7	5	1	15	26
3	Gonsenheim	13	8	1	4	16	25
4	Pirmasens	13	7	3	3	19	24
5	FV Engers 07	13	6	4	3	9	22
6	TuS Koblenz	13	6	4	3	5	22
7	Wormatia Worms	13	6	3	4	13	21
8	RW Wittlich	12	6	3	3	8	21
9	TuS RW Koblenz	13	5	5	3	7	20
10	Gau-Odernheim	12	6	2	4	5	20
11	FC Emmelshausen-Karbach	13	5	4	4	-4	19
12	Elversberg II	13	4	4	5	-7	16
13	Hertha Wiesbach	13	4	3	6	-8	15
14	Auersmacher	13	5	0	8	-10	15
15	Cosmos Koblenz	13	4	1	8	-5	13
16	Ahrweiler	13	1	4	8	-14	7
17	Diefflen	13	1	4	8	-22	7
18	Eisbachtal	13	0	1	12	-39	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.

A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.