Hertha Wiesbach vs Diefflen Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.58 expected goals for Hertha Wiesbach and 1.51 for Diefflen, a combined total of 4.09. That distribution gives Hertha Wiesbach the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Hertha Wiesbach win

60.5% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.58 – 1.51

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Hertha Wiesbach home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Diefflen away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hertha Wiesbach to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 18% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.58 goals for Hertha Wiesbach and 1.51 for Diefflen, a combined 4.09 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Hertha Wiesbach win61%

Draw18%

Diefflen win21%

Double chance 1X

79%

Double chance 12

82%

Double chance X2

39%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals91%

Over 2.5 goals77%

Over 3.5 goals58%

Both teams to score72%

Correct score

2–18.4%
3–17.2%
1–16.5%
2–26.4%
2–05.6%

Recent form

Hertha Wiesbach

2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Eisbachtal · 4-1 (W)
2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Diefflen · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Mechtersheim · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Wormatia Worms · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Ahrweiler · 2-0 (W)

Diefflen

2026-10-24T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Ahrweiler · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-17T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Mechtersheim · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Wormatia Worms · 3-3 (D)
2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Hertha Wiesbach · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs TuS Koblenz · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Mechtersheim	14	10	1	3	15	31
2	Schott Mainz	14	8	5	1	17	29
3	Pirmasens	14	8	3	3	21	27
4	Gonsenheim	14	8	1	5	14	25
5	Gau-Odernheim	13	7	2	4	9	23
6	TuS RW Koblenz	14	6	5	3	8	23
7	FV Engers 07	13	6	4	3	9	22
8	TuS Koblenz	13	6	4	3	5	22
9	FC Emmelshausen-Karbach	14	6	4	4	-2	22
10	Wormatia Worms	14	6	3	5	11	21
11	RW Wittlich	13	6	3	4	7	21
12	Elversberg II	14	5	4	5	-5	19
13	Hertha Wiesbach	14	4	3	7	-10	15
14	Auersmacher	14	5	0	9	-12	15
15	Cosmos Koblenz	14	4	1	9	-9	13
16	Ahrweiler	14	1	5	8	-14	8
17	Diefflen	14	1	5	8	-22	8
18	Eisbachtal	14	0	1	13	-42	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Hertha Wiesbach win, at 60.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.

A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.