Auestadion · Analysis updated 09:08 UTC
Hessen Kassel vs Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Hessen Kassel and 1.33 for Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn., a combined total of 3.33. That distribution gives Hessen Kassel the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Hessen Kassel win
53.1% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hessen Kassel home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hessen Kassel to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 22% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Hessen Kassel and 1.33 for Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn., a combined 3.33 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.5%
- 2–19.5%
- 1–07.2%
- 2–07.2%
- 3–16.4%
Recent form
Hessen Kassel
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kaiserslautern II · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs SSV Ulm 1846 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FSV Mainz 05 II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC 08 Homburg · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Kickers Offenbach · 2-1 (W)
Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FSV Mainz 05 II · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs SGV Freiberg · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs VfR Aalen · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC 08 Homburg · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs VfR Mannheim · 1-5 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Regionalliga - SudWest table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SGV Freiberg | 13 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 19 | 27 |
| 2 | VfR Aalen | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 27 |
| 3 | VfR Mannheim | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 13 | 26 |
| 4 | Stuttgarter Kickers | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 23 |
| 5 | Eintracht Trier | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 22 |
| 6 | Kickers Offenbach | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 21 |
| 7 | FC 08 Homburg | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 20 |
| 8 | SV Sandhausen | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 19 |
| 9 | Freiburg II | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 17 |
| 10 | TSV Steinbach | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 16 |
| 11 | Eintracht Frankfurt II | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | -1 | 16 |
| 12 | Hessen Kassel | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -7 | 14 |
| 13 | FC Astoria Walldorf | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 13 |
| 14 | FSV Frankfurt | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -3 | 13 |
| 15 | Kaiserslautern II | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -13 | 11 |
| 16 | FSV Mainz 05 II | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -13 | 11 |
| 17 | SSV Ulm 1846 | 13 | 1 | 7 | 5 | -7 | 10 |
| 18 | Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -11 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Hessen Kassel win, at 53.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.